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Performance evaluation of judgemental directional exchange rate predictions

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  • Pollock, Andrew C.
  • Macaulay, Alex
  • Thomson, Mary E.
  • Onkal, Dilek
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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V92-4FG2X0N-1/2/394bd842efd0a56837207c0aa8d43b35
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 21 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 473-489

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:21:y:2005:i:3:p:473-489

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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    1. Westerfield, Janice Moulton, 1977. "An examination of foreign exchange risk under fixed and floating rate regimes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 181-200, May.
    2. Wang, Jian-Xin, 2001. "Quote revision and information flow among foreign exchange dealers," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 115-136, June.
    3. Richard J Rogalski & Joseph D Vinso, 1978. "Empirical Properties of Foreign Exchange Rates," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(2), pages 69-79, June.
    4. Benson, P. George & Onkal, Dilek, 1992. "The effects of feedback and training on the performance of probability forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 559-573, December.
    5. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    6. Boothe, Paul & Glassman, Debra, 1987. "The statistical distribution of exchange rates: Empirical evidence and economic implications," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3-4), pages 297-319, May.
    7. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hassapis, Christis & Pittis, Nikitas, 1998. "Conditional Leptokurtosis and Non-Linear Dependence in Exchange Rate Returns," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 581-601, October.
    8. Ito, Takatoshi, 1990. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 434-49, June.
    9. Zhou, Bin, 1996. "High-Frequency Data and Volatility in Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 45-52, January.
    10. Mary Thomson & Andrew Pollock & Karen Henriksen & Alex Macaulay, 2004. "The influence of the forecast horizon on judgemental probability forecasts of exchange rate movements," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 290-307.
    11. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Pittis, Nikitas, 1996. "Modelling the sterling-deutschmark exchange rate: Non-linear dependence and thick tails," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, January.
    12. Ronis, David L. & Yates, J. Frank, 1987. "Components of probability judgment accuracy: Individual consistency and effects of subject matter and assessment method," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 193-218, October.
    13. Wilkie, Mary E. & Pollock, Andrew C., 1996. "An application of probability judgement accuracy measures to currency forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 25-40, March.
    14. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    15. Coppes, R. C., 1995. "Are exchange rate changes normally distributed?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 117-121, February.
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    Cited by:
    1. Thomson, Mary E. & Pollock, Andrew C. & Gönül, M. Sinan & Önkal, Dilek, 2013. "Effects of trend strength and direction on performance and consistency in judgmental exchange rate forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 337-353.
    2. Barrera, Carlos R., 2010. "Redes neuronales para predecir el tipo de cambio diario," Working Papers 2010-001, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

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