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A comment on: "The solution to the forward-bias puzzle”

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  • Alan, King
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    Abstract

    Pippenger (2011) recently proposed a solution to the longstanding forward-bias puzzle. He argues that the puzzling estimates obtained using the standard equation for the efficient markets hypothesis are due to omitted variable bias. He identifies the missing variables as the future change in the forward exchange rate and the future interest differential. When these are added to the standard equation, he finds a one-to-one relationship between the future change in the spot rate and the forward premium. However, we argue that his equation can only test covered interest parity and offers no insight into the forward-bias puzzle.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.

    Volume (Year): 21 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 4 (October)
    Pages: 623-628

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:21:y:2011:i:4:p:623-628

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin

    Related research

    Keywords: Forward-bias puzzle Covered interest parity Efficient markets hypothesis;

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    1. Mark E. Wohar & Nathan S. Balke, 1998. "Nonlinear dynamics and covered interest rate parity," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 535-559.
    2. Akram, Qaisar Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2008. "Arbitrage in the Foreign Exchange Market: Turning on the Microscope," CEPR Discussion Papers 6878, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey & Poonawala, Jumana, 2009. "The Forward Market in Emerging Currencies: Less Biased Than in Major Currencies," Working Paper Series rwp09-023, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    4. Pippenger, John, 2011. "The solution to the forward-bias puzzle," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 296-304, April.
    5. Pippenger, John, 2011. "A Complete Solution To The Forward-Bias Puzzle," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt5gq9z4j0, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
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