Using simulated currency rainbow options to evaluate covariance matrix forecasts
AbstractWhen choosing evaluation measures for variance and covariance forecasts one has to consider what the actual purpose of these forecasts is. In this paper we extend the results of Gibson and Boyer (1998) by looking at portfolios of rainbow currency options and how simulated trading of such options portfolios can be used as a preference free evaluation measure for the forecasted covariance matrix. The advantage of using portfolios instead of single options is the possibility it gives of relying on shorter return series. We apply the methodology to a system of four U.S. dollar exchange rates and compare the relative performance of different forecasting models. In doing this, we also apply and evaluate the fairly new Orthogonal GARCH technique to exchange rates, both with the option evaluation technique and with standard statistical measures
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.
Volume (Year): 12 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin
Other versions of this item:
- Byström, Hans, 2000. "Using Simulated Currency Rainbow Options to Evaluate Covariance Matrix Forecasts," Working Papers 2000:17, Lund University, Department of Economics.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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