Forecasting mortality for small populations by mixing mortality data
AbstractIn this paper we address the problem of projecting mortality when data are severely affected by random fluctuations, due in particular to a small sample size, or when data are scanty. Such situations may emerge when dealing with small populations, such as small countries (possibly previously part of a larger country), a specific geographic area of a (large) country, a life annuity portfolio or a pension fund, or when the investigation is restricted to the oldest ages. The critical issues arising from the volatility of data due to the small sample size (especially at the highest ages) may be made worse by missing records; this is the case, for example, of a small country previously part of a larger country, or a specific geographic area of a country, given that in some periods mortality data could have been collected just at an aggregate level.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Insurance: Mathematics and Economics.
Volume (Year): 54 (2014)
Issue (Month): C ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505554
Mortality projections; Mortality trends; Multi-population mortality models;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
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