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If we can simulate it, we can insure it: An application to longevity risk management

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  • Boyer, M. Martin
  • Stentoft, Lars

Abstract

This paper proposes a unified framework for measuring and managing longevity risk. Specifically, we develop a flexible framework for valuing survivor derivatives like forwards, and swaps, as well as options both of European and American style. Our framework is essentially independent of the assumed underlying dynamics and the choice of method for risk neutralization and relies only on the ability to simulate from the risk neutral process. We provide an application to derivatives on the survivor index when the underlying dynamics are from a Lee–Carter model. Our results show that taking the optionality into consideration is important from a pricing perspective.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Insurance: Mathematics and Economics.

Volume (Year): 52 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 35-45

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Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:52:y:2013:i:1:p:35-45

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505554

Related research

Keywords: Least squares Monte Carlo; Longevity risk; Reinsurance; Simulation;

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  1. Anna Rita Bacinello & Enrico Biffis & Pietro Millossovich, 2010. "Regression-based algorithms for life insurance contracts with surrender guarantees," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(9), pages 1077-1090.
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  6. Cocco, João F. & Gomes, Francisco J., 2012. "Longevity risk, retirement savings, and financial innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 507-529.
  7. Renshaw, A.E. & Haberman, S., 2006. "A cohort-based extension to the Lee-Carter model for mortality reduction factors," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 556-570, June.
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  9. Peter Christoffersen & Redouane Elkamhi & Bruno Feunou & Kris Jacobs, 2009. "Option Valuation with Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Non-Normality," CREATES Research Papers 2009-33, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
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  14. Nordahl, Helge A., 2008. "Valuation of life insurance surrender and exchange options," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 909-919, June.
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  16. Paul Dawson & Kevin Dowd & Andrew J. G. Cairns & David Blake, 2010. "Survivor Derivatives: A Consistent Pricing Framework," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 77(3), pages 579-596.
  17. Davies, James B, 1981. "Uncertain Lifetime, Consumption, and Dissaving in Retirement," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(3), pages 561-77, June.
  18. Andrew J. G. Cairns & David Blake & Kevin Dowd, 2006. "A Two-Factor Model for Stochastic Mortality with Parameter Uncertainty: Theory and Calibration," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 687-718.
  19. Carriere, Jacques F., 1996. "Valuation of the early-exercise price for options using simulations and nonparametric regression," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 19-30, December.
  20. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  21. Yijia Lin & Samuel H. Cox, 2005. "Securitization of Mortality Risks in Life Annuities," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 72(2), pages 227-252.
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