Managing contribution and capital market risk in a funded public defined benefit plan: Impact of CVaR cost constraints
AbstractUsing a Monte Carlo framework, we analyze the risks and rewards of moving from an unfunded defined benefit pension system to a funded plan for German civil servants, allowing for alternative strategic contribution and investment patterns. In the process we integrate a Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) restriction on overall plan costs into the pension manager's objective of controlling contribution rate volatility. After estimating the contribution rate that would fully fund future benefit promises for current and prospective employees, we identify the optimal contribution and investment strategy that minimizes contribution rate volatility while restricting worst-case plan costs. Finally, we analyze the time path of expected and worst-case contribution rates to assess the chances of reduced contribution rates for current and future generations. Our results show that moving toward a funded public pension system can be beneficial for both civil servants and taxpayers.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Insurance: Mathematics and Economics.
Volume (Year): 45 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (August)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505554
Public pensions Defined benefit Funding Investing Contribution rate risk Conditional Value at Risk;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Detemple, JÃ©rÃ´me & Rindisbacher, Marcel, 2008. "Dynamic asset liability management with tolerance for limited shortfalls," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 281-294, December.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988.
"Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University
858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," NBER Working Papers 2511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Scholarly Articles 3224293, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Shiller, R.J., 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings And Expected Dividends," Papers, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program 334, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Hoevenaars, Roy P.M.M. & Molenaar, Roderick D.J. & Schotman, Peter C. & Steenkamp, Tom B.M., 2008. "Strategic asset allocation with liabilities: Beyond stocks and bonds," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 2939-2970, September.
- Campbell, John Y. & Viceira, Luis M., 2002. "Strategic Asset Allocation: Portfolio Choice for Long-Term Investors," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296942, October.
- Haberman, Steven & Butt, Zoltan & Megaloudi, Chryssoula, 2000. "Contribution and solvency risk in a defined benefit pension scheme," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 237-259, October.
- Ngwira, Bernard & Gerrard, Russell, 2007. "Stochastic pension fund control in the presence of Poisson jumps," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 283-292, March.
- Chang, S. C. & Tzeng, Larry Y. & Miao, Jerry C. Y., 2003. "Pension funding incorporating downside risks," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 217-228, April.
- Haberman, Steven & Sung, Joo-Ho, 1994. "Dynamic approaches to pension funding," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2-3), pages 151-162, December.
- Martin Feldstein & Elena Ranguelova, 2001.
"Individual Risk in an Investment-Based Social Security System,"
NBER Working Papers
8074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin Feldstein & Elena Ranguelova, 2001. "Individual Risk in an Investment-Based Social Security System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1116-1125, September.
- Haberman, Steven & Sung, Joo-Ho, 2005. "Optimal pension funding dynamics over infinite control horizon when stochastic rates of return are stationary," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 103-116, February.
- Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua D. Rauh, 2008. "The Intergenerational Transfer of Public Pension Promises," NBER Working Papers 14343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Haberman, Steven, 1997. "Stochastic investment returns and contribution rate risk in a defined benefit pension scheme," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 127-139, April.
- Ranguelova, Elena & Feldstein, Martin, 2001. "Individual Risk in an Investment-Based Social Security System," Scholarly Articles 2797440, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Michael W. Brandt & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2006. "Dynamic Portfolio Selection by Augmentingthe Asset Space," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2187-2217, October.
- Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean-Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228.
- Josa-Fombellida, Ricardo & Rincon-Zapatero, Juan Pablo, 2006. "Optimal investment decisions with a liability: The case of defined benefit pension plans," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 81-98, August.
- Rockafellar, R. Tyrrell & Uryasev, Stanislav, 2002. "Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1443-1471, July.
- Hainaut, Donatien & Devolder, Pierre, 2007. "Management of a pension fund under mortality and financial risks," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 134-155, July.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
- Du Caicai & Muysken Joan & Sleijpen Olaf, 2011. "Lessons from the financial crisis: Funded pension funds should invest conservatively," Research Memorandum 020, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.