Estimation of loss reserves with lognormal development factors
AbstractThis paper uses a development technique to estimate the loss reserve in a classical run-off triangle setting. Closed-form solutions for unbiased estimates of reserves and their corresponding standard errors can be obtained by assuming lognormal distributions of the development factors. The technique is applied to the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method [Bornhuetter, R.L., Ferguson, R.E., 1972. The actuary and IBNR. Proc. Casualty Actuarial Soc. 59, 181-195] and to two previously studied data sets.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Insurance: Mathematics and Economics.
Volume (Year): 42 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505554
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