Genetically modified crops as real options: Identifying regional and country-specific differences
AbstractThis paper employs real options methodology for evaluating profitability of genetically modified (GM) crops in volatile market and regulatory environments. Observed instances of market entry, or product introduction, are viewed as outcomes of profit maximizing decisions based on comparison of market entry costs, expected future returns, and the value of managerial flexibility. The process is estimated using simulated maximum likelihood. The estimates suggest that, in the developing countries, the downward volatility of the returns is higher resulting in lower adoption rates, whereas the environment in the top four industrialized GMO adopting countries appears to be costlier but much more optimistic. Commercial success of GM soybean and maize in Argentina, Brazil, and the U.S. is explained mostly by a combination of high upward return volatility and moderate entry costs. The findings may contribute to the general understanding, measurement, and possibilities of controlling the rate of technical advance in biotechnology.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Industrial Organization.
Volume (Year): 29 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (July)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505551
Real options Dynamic programming GM crops R&D;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Titman, Sheridan, 1985. "Urban Land Prices under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 505-14, June.
- Marco, Alan C. & Rausser, Gordon C., 2007.
"The Role of Patent Rights in Mergers: Consolidation in Plant Biotechnology,"
Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series
qt2dk2x9hm, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
- Alan C. Marco & Gordon C. Rausser, 2008. "The Role of Patent Rights in Mergers: Consolidation in Plant Biotechnology," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(1), pages 133-151.
- Marco, Alan C. & Rausser, Gordon C., 2007. "The role of patent rights in mergers : consolidation in plant biotechnology," CUDARE Working Paper Series 1036, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
- Marco, Alan C. & Rausser, Gordon C., 2008. "AJAE Appendix: The Role of Patent Rights in Mergers: Consolidation in Plant Biotechnology," American Journal of Agricultural Economics Appendices, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(1), February.
- Pindyck, Robert S, 1988.
"Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-85, December.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 1986. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," NBER Working Papers 1980, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1986. "Irreversible investment, capacity choice, and the value of the firm," Working papers 1802-86., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Pakes, Ariel S, 1986.
"Patents as Options: Some Estimates of the Value of Holding European Patent Stocks,"
Econometric Society, vol. 54(4), pages 755-84, July.
- Ariel Pakes, 1986. "Patents as Options: Some Estimates of the Value of Holding European Patent Stocks," NBER Working Papers 1340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-57, April.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.