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Explaining wood stock increases in times of decreasing profitability: A statistical analysis


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  • González-Gómez, Manuel
  • Otero Giráldez, Mª Soledad
  • Álvarez-Díaz, Marcos


The aim of this paper is to analyze the statistical relationship between the yearly timber supply of Maritime Pine and Eucalyptus and their market prices in Galicia (northwest of Spain) during the 1985-2007 period. The development of profitability and growing stock is similar for both species in the forestry sector of this region. Specifically, we observe that forest owners decide to accumulate growing stock in spite of decreasing profitability, due to the evolution of prices and costs. In this study, we attempt to explain statistically the forest owners' behavior using the Granger causality test and an analysis based on the cross-correlation functions. The statistical analysis between timber supply and market prices shows opposite results for both species. The increasing growing stock is due to a decrease in wood prices in the case of Pinus pinaster. Lower prices and less timber supply resulted in a higher accumulation of growing stock. On the contrary, this result does not hold for Eukaliptus globulus. In this case, a decrease in price does not statistically cause a reduction in timber supply. This may suggest that the accumulation of growing stock could be a consequence of subsidies, forest abandonment, and rapid natural regeneration of this species.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Forest Policy and Economics.

Volume (Year): 13 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
Pages: 176-183

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Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:13:y:2011:i:3:p:176-183

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Keywords: Profitability of forestry Granger causality test Cross-correlation Galicia;


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  1. Moog, Martin & Borchert, Herbert, 2001. "Increasing rotation periods during a time of decreasing profitability of forestry -- a paradox?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 101-116, June.
  2. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  3. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
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Cited by:
  1. González-Gómez, Manuel & Álvarez-Díaz, Marcos & Otero-Giráldez, María Soledad, 2013. "Estimating the long-run impact of forest fires on the eucalyptus timber supply in Galicia, Spain," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 149-161.


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