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Default cascades: When does risk diversification increase stability?

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  • Battiston, Stefano
  • Gatti, Domenico Delli
  • Gallegati, Mauro
  • Greenwald, Bruce
  • Stiglitz, Joseph E.

Abstract

We explore the dynamics of default cascades in a network of credit interlink-ages in which each agent is at the same time a borrower and a lender. When some counterparties of an agent default, the loss she experiences amounts to her total exposure to those counterparties. A possible conjecture in this context is that individual risk diversification across more numerous counterparties should make also systemic defaults less likely. We show that this view is not always true. In particular, the diversification of credit risk across many borrowers has ambiguous effects on systemic risk in the presence of mechanisms of loss amplifications such as in the presence of potential runs among the short-term lenders of the agents in the network.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Stability.

Volume (Year): 8 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 138-149

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Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:8:y:2012:i:3:p:138-149

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jfstabil

Related research

Keywords: Systemic risk; Network models; Contagion; Financial crisis;

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References

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  1. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2008. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-08," NBER Working Papers 14612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jean-Charles Rochet & Xavier Vives, 2002. "Coordination failures and the lender of last resort: was Bagehot right after all?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24928, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  3. Wagner, Wolf, 2010. "Diversification at financial institutions and systemic crises," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 373-386, July.
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  6. Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit, 2010. "Contagion in financial networks," Bank of England working papers 383, Bank of England.
  7. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2010. "Risk and Global Economic Architecture: Why Full Financial Integration May Be Undesirable," NBER Working Papers 15718, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Bartram, Sohnke M. & Brown, Gregory W. & Hund, John E., 2007. "Estimating systemic risk in the international financial system," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 835-869, December.
  9. Acharya, Viral V., 2009. "A theory of systemic risk and design of prudential bank regulation," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 224-255, September.
  10. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1301-1314, September.
  11. Shin, Hyun Song, 2008. "Risk and liquidity in a system context," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 315-329, July.
  12. Michael Boss & Martin Summer & Stefan Thurner, 2004. "Contagion Flow Through Banking Networks," Papers cond-mat/0403167, arXiv.org.
  13. Iori, Giulia & Jafarey, Saqib & Padilla, Francisco G., 2006. "Systemic risk on the interbank market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 525-542, December.
  14. Brunnermeier, Markus K & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2007. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," CEPR Discussion Papers 6179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Furfine, Craig H, 2003. " Interbank Exposures: Quantifying the Risk of Contagion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 111-28, February.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sergio R. S. Souza & Benjamin M. Tabak & Solange M. Guerra, 2013. "Insolvency and Contagion in the Brazilian Interbank Market," Working Papers Series 320, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  2. Minoiu, Camelia & Reyes, Javier A., 2013. "A network analysis of global banking: 1978–2010," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 168-184.
  3. Matteo Chinazzi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Javier A. Reyes & Stefano Schiavo, 2012. "Post-Mortem Examination of the International Financial Network," Department of Economics Working Papers 1202, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
  4. carlos León & Ron J. Berndsen, 2013. "Modular scale-free architecture of Colombian financial networks: Evidence and challenges with financial stability in view," Borradores de Economia 799, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  5. Rahul Kaushik & Stefano Battiston, 2012. "Credit Default Swaps Drawup Networks: Too Tied To Be Stable?," Papers 1205.0976, arXiv.org.
  6. Josselin Garnier & George Papanicolaou & Tzu-Wei Yang, 2012. "Large deviations for a mean field model of systemic risk," Papers 1204.3536, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2012.
  7. Grzegorz Hałaj & Christoffer Kok, 2013. "Assessing interbank contagion using simulated networks," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 157-186, June.
  8. Merwan Engineer & Paul Schure & Mark Gillis, 2012. "A Positive Analysis of Deposit Insurance Provision: Regulatory Competition Among European Union Countries," Working Paper Series 29_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  9. Lou, Weifang & Yin, Xiangkang, 2014. "The impact of the global financial crisis on mortgage pricing and credit supply," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 336-363.
  10. Charles D. Brummitt & Rajiv Sethi & Duncan J. Watts, 2014. "Inside Money, Procyclical Leverage, and Banking Catastrophes," Papers 1403.1637, arXiv.org.
  11. H Peyton Young & Paul Glasserman, 2013. "How Likely is Contagion in Financial Networks?," Economics Series Working Papers 642, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  12. Paolo Tasca & Stefano Battiston, . "Market Procyclicality and Systemic Risk," Working Papers ETH-RC-12-012, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
  13. Li, Xi Hao, 2013. "Standardization for Agent-based Modeling in Economics," MPRA Paper 47396, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2013. "Stable Growth in an Era of Crises; Learning from Economic Theory and History," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 1-39, January.

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