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Default cascades: When does risk diversification increase stability?

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  • Battiston, Stefano
  • Gatti, Domenico Delli
  • Gallegati, Mauro
  • Greenwald, Bruce
  • Stiglitz, Joseph E.

Abstract

We explore the dynamics of default cascades in a network of credit interlink-ages in which each agent is at the same time a borrower and a lender. When some counterparties of an agent default, the loss she experiences amounts to her total exposure to those counterparties. A possible conjecture in this context is that individual risk diversification across more numerous counterparties should make also systemic defaults less likely. We show that this view is not always true. In particular, the diversification of credit risk across many borrowers has ambiguous effects on systemic risk in the presence of mechanisms of loss amplifications such as in the presence of potential runs among the short-term lenders of the agents in the network.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Stability.

Volume (Year): 8 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 138-149

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Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:8:y:2012:i:3:p:138-149

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jfstabil

Related research

Keywords: Systemic risk; Network models; Contagion; Financial crisis;

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References

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  1. Acharya, Viral V., 2009. "A theory of systemic risk and design of prudential bank regulation," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 224-255, September.
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  11. Wagner, W.B., 2006. "Diversification at Financial Institutions and Systemic Crises," Discussion Paper 2006-71, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  12. Upper, Christian, 2011. "Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 111-125, August.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Josselin Garnier & George Papanicolaou & Tzu-Wei Yang, 2012. "Large deviations for a mean field model of systemic risk," Papers 1204.3536, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2012.
  2. Charles D. Brummitt & Rajiv Sethi & Duncan J. Watts, 2014. "Inside Money, Procyclical Leverage, and Banking Catastrophes," Papers 1403.1637, arXiv.org.
  3. H Peyton Young & Paul Glasserman, 2013. "How Likely is Contagion in Financial Networks?," Economics Series Working Papers 642, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  4. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2013. "Stable Growth in an Era of Crises; Learning from Economic Theory and History," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 1-39, January.
  5. Edoardo Gaffeo & Massimo Molinari, 2014. "Macroprudential Consolidation Policy in Interbank Networks," DEM Discussion Papers 2014/01, Department of Economics and Management.
  6. Engineer, Merwan H. & Schure, Paul & Gillis, Mark, 2013. "A positive analysis of deposit insurance provision: Regulatory competition among European Union countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 530-544.
  7. Rahul Kaushik & Stefano Battiston, . "Credit Default Swaps Drawup Networks: Too Tied To Be Stable?," Working Papers ETH-RC-12-013, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
  8. Tasca, Paolo & Battiston, Stefano, 2013. "Market Procyclicality and Systemic Risk," MPRA Paper 45156, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2013.
  9. Hałaj, Grzegorz & Kok, Christoffer, 2013. "Assessing interbank contagion using simulated networks," Working Paper Series 1506, European Central Bank.
  10. carlos León & Ron J. Berndsen, 2013. "Modular scale-free architecture of Colombian financial networks: Evidence and challenges with financial stability in view," Borradores de Economia 799, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  11. Matteo Chinazzi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Javier A. Reyes & Stefano Schiavo, 2012. "Post-Mortem Examination of the International Financial Network," Department of Economics Working Papers 1202, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
  12. Carlos León & Ron J. Berndsen, 2013. "Modular scale-free architecture of Colombian financial networks: Evidence and challenges with financial stability in view," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 011104, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  13. Alvarez, Fernando & Barlevy, Gadi, 2014. "Mandatory Disclosure and Financial Contagion," Working Paper Series WP-2014-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  14. Lou, Weifang & Yin, Xiangkang, 2014. "The impact of the global financial crisis on mortgage pricing and credit supply," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 336-363.
  15. Minoiu, Camelia & Reyes, Javier A., 2013. "A network analysis of global banking: 1978–2010," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 168-184.
  16. Carlos León & Clara Machado & Miguel Sarmiento, 2014. "Identifying central bank liquidity super-spreaders in interbank funds networks," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 011187, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  17. Li, Xi Hao, 2013. "Standardization for Agent-based Modeling in Economics," MPRA Paper 47396, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  18. Carlos León & Clara Machado & Miguel Sarmiento, 2014. "Identifying central bank liquidity super-spreaders in interbank funds networks," Borradores de Economia 816, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  19. Sergio R. S. Souza & Benjamin M. Tabak & Solange M. Guerra, 2013. "Insolvency and Contagion in the Brazilian Interbank Market," Working Papers Series 320, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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