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Is the value spread a useful predictor of returns?

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  • Liu, Naiping
  • Zhang, Lu
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Abstract

No. Two related variables, the book-to-market spread (the book-to-market of value stocks minus the book-to-market of growth stocks), and the market-to-book spread (the market-to-book of growth stocks minus the market-to-book of value stocks) predict returns but with opposite signs. The value spread mixes the cyclical variations of the book-to-market and market-to-book spreads, and appears much less useful in predicting returns. Our evidence casts doubt on Campbell and Vuolteenaho [2004. Bad beta, good beta. American Economic Review 94(5), 1249-1275] because their conclusion relies critically on using the value spread as a predictor of aggregate stock returns.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Markets.

Volume (Year): 11 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 199-227

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Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:11:y:2008:i:3:p:199-227

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/finmar

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References

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  1. Long Chen & Xinlei Zhao, 2009. "Return Decomposition," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5213-5249, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hervé-Mignucci, Morgan & Mansanet-Bataller, Maria & Chevallier, Julien & Alberola, Emilie, 2011. "EUA and sCER Phase II Price Drivers: Unveiling the reasons for the existence of the EUA-sCER spread," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/5109, Paris Dauphine University.
  2. Rytchkov, Oleg, 2010. "Expected returns on value, growth, and HML," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 552-565, September.
  3. Hsu, Po-Hsuan, 2009. "Technological innovations and aggregate risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 264-279, November.
  4. Maio, Paulo, 2013. "Return decomposition and the Intertemporal CAPM," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4958-4972.
  5. Thomas Nitschka, 2007. "Cashflow news, the value premium and an asset pricing view on European stock market integration," IEW - Working Papers 339, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  6. Nitschka, Thomas, 2006. "Does sensitivity to cashflow news explain the value premium on European stock markets?," Technical Reports 2006,12, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  7. Maria Mansanet-Bataller & Julien Chevallier & Morgan Hervé-Mignucci & Emilie Alberola, 2010. "The EUA-sCER Spread: Compliance Strategies and Arbitrage in the European Carbon Market," Post-Print halshs-00458991, HAL.
  8. John M. Geppert & Stoyu I. Ivanov & Gordon V. Karels, 2011. "An examination of the information content of S&P 500 index changes: Analysis of systematic risk," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 411-426, November.

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