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The random-walk behavior of the Euro exchange rate

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  • Chortareas, Georgios
  • Jiang, Ying
  • Nankervis, John C.

Abstract

We use Generalized Andrews-Ploberger (GAP) tests to examine the random-walk behavior of 17 OECD countries' euro exchange rates at daily frequencies. The GAP tests reject the hypothesis of random-walk behavior less often than do traditional tests. Moreover, the random-walk hypothesis cannot be rejected for the euro's exchange rate against most of the major currencies. We also use the generalized Box-Pierce tests to produce evidence that corroborates the above findings. Finally, and in contrast to the traditional tests, the GAP tests produce results that are consistent during the great moderation and the recent global financial crisis periods.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Finance Research Letters.

Volume (Year): 8 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 158-162

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Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:8:y:2011:i:3:p:158-162

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl

Related research

Keywords: Euro exchange rates Random walks Generalized Andrews-Ploberger test Generalized Box-Pierce test;

References

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  1. Smoluk, Herbert J. & Vasconcellos, Geraldo M. & Kramer, Jonathan K., 1998. "Random walks in the U.K. pound/ U.S. dollar exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 65-82.
  2. Yilmaz, Kamil, 2003. "Martingale Property of Exchange Rates and Central Bank Interventions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(3), pages 383-95, July.
  3. Belaire-Franch, Jorge & Opong, Kwaku K., 2005. "Some evidence of random walk behavior of Euro exchange rates using ranks and signs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1631-1643, July.
  4. Lobato, I.N. & Nankervis, John C. & Savin, N.E., 2002. "Testing For Zero Autocorrelation In The Presence Of Statistical Dependence," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 730-743, June.
  5. Choi, In, 1999. "Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis for Real Exchange Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 293-308, May-June.
  6. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Hu, Yu-Hau, 2009. "New evidence on nominal exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1045-1063, October.
  7. Nankervis, John C. & Savin, N. E., 2010. "Testing for Serial Correlation: Generalized Andrews–Ploberger Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(2), pages 246-255.
  8. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
  9. Yang, Jian & Su, Xiaojing & Kolari, James W., 2008. "Do Euro exchange rates follow a martingale? Some out-of-sample evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 729-740, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2012. "Exchange-rate return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from major foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1607-1626.
  2. Adrian Wai-Kong Cheung & Jen-Je Su & Astrophel Kim Choo, 2011. "Are Euro exchange rates markets efficient? New evidence from a large panel," Discussion Papers in Finance finance:201109, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.

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