Consumption growth and time-varying expected stock returns
AbstractWhen the consumption growth rate is measured based upon fourth quarter data, it tracks predictable variation in future excess stock returns. Low fourth quarter consumption growth rates predict high future excess stock returns such that expected returns are high at business cycle troughs and low at business cycle peaks. The consumption growth rate loses predictive power when it is measured based upon other quarters. This is consistent with the insight of Jagannathan and Wang [2007. Journal of Finance 62, 1623-1661] that investors tend to review their consumption and investment plans during the end of each calendar year, and at possibly random times in between. The consumption growth rate measured based upon fourth quarter data is a much stronger predictive variable than benchmark predictive variables such as the dividend-price ratio, the term spread, and the default spread.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Finance Research Letters.
Volume (Year): 5 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl
Return predictability Consumption growth;
Other versions of this item:
- Stig Vinther Møller, 2008. "Consumption growth and time-varying expected stock returns," CREATES Research Papers 2008-40, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
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