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A note on takeover success prediction

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Author Info

  • Branch, Ben
  • Wang, Jia
  • Yang, Taewon
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    Abstract

    A takeover success prediction model attempts to use information that is publicly available at the time of the announcement in order to predict the probability that a takeover attempt will succeed. This paper develops a takeover success prediction model by comparing two techniques: the traditional logistic regression model and the artificial neural network technology. To alleviate the problem of bias from the sampling variation, we validate our results through re-sampling. Our empirical results indicate that 1). Arbitrage spread, target resistance, deal structure and transaction size are the dominating factors that have impacts on the outcome of a takeover attempt. 2). Neural network model outperforms logistic regression in predicting failed takeover attempts and performs as well as logistic regression in predicting successful takeover attempts.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6W4W-4PBDR4T-1/2/904c9184dcb5a03c401c5840483b37e5
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Review of Financial Analysis.

    Volume (Year): 17 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 5 (December)
    Pages: 1186-1193

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:17:y:2008:i:5:p:1186-1193

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166

    Related research

    Keywords: Takeover success prediction Artificial neural network Logistic regression;

    References

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    1. Samuelson, William & Rosenthal, Leonard, 1986. " Price Movements as Indicators of Tender Offer Success," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(2), pages 481-99, June.
    2. G. William Schwert, 2000. "Hostility in Takeovers: In the Eyes of the Beholder?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2599-2640, December.
    3. Kar Yan Tam & Melody Y. Kiang, 1992. "Managerial Applications of Neural Networks: The Case of Bank Failure Predictions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(7), pages 926-947, July.
    4. Walkling, Ralph A., 1985. "Predicting Tender Offer Success: A Logistic Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(04), pages 461-478, December.
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    Cited by:
    1. Zhang, Jianhong & Zhou, Chaohong & Ebbers, Haico, 2011. "Completion of Chinese overseas acquisitions: Institutional perspectives and evidence," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 226-238, April.

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