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Scylla and Charybdis. Explaining Europe's exit from gold, January 1928-December 1936

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Wolf, Nikolaus

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Abstract

The paper examines the timing of exit from the interwar gold-exchange standard for a panel of European countries, based on monthly data over the period January 1928-December 1936. I show that exit from gold can be understood in terms of a trade-off between a limited set of factors commonly suggested in the theoretical literature on currency crises. A simple and parsimonious econometric framework that nests various hypotheses allows me to predict the month of exit in the 1930s, except for France. I consider the separate cases of France and Poland to show my results shed light on country-specific debates.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Explorations in Economic History.

Volume (Year): 45 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Pages: 383-401
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Handle: RePEc:eee:exehis:v:45:y:2008:i:4:p:383-401

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622830

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Keywords: Gold-exchange standard Interwar period Europe;

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  2. Sébastien Wälti, 2005. "The duration of fixed exchange rate regimes," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp96, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Giovanni Federico, 2005. "Not guilty? Agriculture in the 1920s and the Great Depression," Working Papers in Economic History dilf0502, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Historia Económica e Instituciones. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Obstfeld, Maurice & Taylor, Alan M, 2003. "Sovereign Risk, Credibility and the Gold Standard: 1870-1913 versus 1925-31," CEPR Discussion Papers 3688, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2001. "Fixing for your life," MPRA Paper 13873, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Sicsic, Pierre, 1992. "Was the franc poincare deliberately undervalued?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 69-92, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Narendranathan, W & Stewart, Mark B, 1993. "How Does the Benefit Effect Vary as Unemployment Spells Lengthen?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 361-81, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Bernanke, Ben S, 1995. "The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 1-28, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Klein, Michael W. & Marion, Nancy P., 1997. "Explaining the duration of exchange-rate pegs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 387-404, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Eichengreen, Barry & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1985. "Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(04), pages 925-946, December. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Grossman, Richard S., 1994. "The Shoe That Didn't Drop: Explaining Banking Stability During the Great Depression," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(03), pages 654-682, September. [Downloadable!]
  14. Ben Bemanke & Harold James, 1991. "The Gold Standard, Deflation, and Financial Crisis in the Great Depression: An International Comparison," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets and Financial Crises, pages 33-68 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  15. Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Schnabel, Isabel, 2004. "The German Twin Crisis of 1931," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(03), pages 822-871, September. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Wandschneider, Kirsten, 2008. "The Stability of the Interwar Gold Exchange Standard: Did Politics Matter?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(01), pages 151-181, March. [Downloadable!]
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