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Strategic learning with scenarios

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  • Bood, Robert
  • Postma, Theo

Abstract

Since the oil shocks upset the business world in the 1970s, the use of multiple scenario analysis has been increasingly propagated as an approach to deal effectively with the many long-run uncertainties that surround business organisations. Since its introduction, the scenario approach has undergone some considerable changes and it is now claimed fulfils a diverse range of functions. Newly-added functions include the stretching of managers' mental models and the triggering and acceleration of processes of organisational learning. Although these functions currently get most of the attention in academic and management journals in recent years, a satisfying explanation of how scenarios fulfil these functions is still missing in the scenario literature. The scenario methodology seems to tell only part of the story suggesting that construing and using scenarios 'simply' consists of sequentially completing several distinct phases. If multiple scenario analysis really is able to fulfil the wide range of functions ascribed to it another, more dynamic process has to be hidden behind the rather static phase model. The scenario literature does not give any insight into this latter process. This article aims to increase the understanding of multiple scenario analysis by unravelling some of the mysteries surrounding it. For this purpose, the role of scenarios in strategic management is studied from a cognitive perspective. It appears that scenarios can deal effectively with several bottlenecks that potentially hinder organisational learning on a strategic level in organisations.

Suggested Citation

  • Bood, Robert & Postma, Theo, 1997. "Strategic learning with scenarios," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 633-647, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eurman:v:15:y:1997:i:6:p:633-647
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    Cited by:

    1. Frith, David & Tapinos, Efstathios, 2020. "Opening the ‘black box’ of scenario planning through realist synthesis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Bokrantz, Jon & Skoogh, Anders & Berlin, Cecilia & Stahre, Johan, 2017. "Maintenance in digitalised manufacturing: Delphi-based scenarios for 2030," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 154-169.
    3. Rowland, Nicholas J. & Spaniol, Matthew J., 2017. "Social foundation of scenario planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 6-15.
    4. Elena DOVAL, 2010. "The Firm’S Patrimony €“ An International Approach," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 5(4(14)/ Wi), pages 317-323.
    5. Linz, Marco, 2012. "Scenarios for the aviation industry: A Delphi-based analysis for 2025," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 28-35.
    6. Pissonnier, Solène & Dufils, Arnaud & Le Gal, Pierre-Yves, 2019. "A methodology for redesigning agroecological radical production systems at the farm level," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 161-171.
    7. Smoliński, Adam & Pichlak, Magdalena, 2009. "Innovation in Polish industry: The cluster concept applied to clean coal technologies in Silesia," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 356-364.
    8. Burt, George & Nair, Anup Karath, 2020. "Rigidities of imagination in scenario planning: Strategic foresight through ‘Unlearning’," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    9. von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Darkow, Inga-Lena, 2010. "Scenarios for the logistics services industry: A Delphi-based analysis for 2025," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 46-59, September.
    10. Onsel Sahin, Sule & Ulengin, Fusun & Ulengin, Burc, 2004. "Using neural networks and cognitive mapping in scenario analysis: The case of Turkey's inflation dynamics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 124-145, October.
    11. Fiona Davies & Luiz Moutinho & Graeme Hutcheson, 2005. "Constructing a knowledge‐based system to aid scenario‐based strategic planning: an application to the European airline industry," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 61-79, June.
    12. Bergman, Jukka & Viljainen, Satu & Kassi, Tuomo & Partanen, Jarmo & Laaksonen, Petteri, 2006. "Managing the exploration of new operational and strategic activities using the scenario method--assessing future capabilities in the field of electricity distribution industry," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 46-61, November.
    13. Koh, S.C.L. & Smith, L. & Miah, J. & Astudillo, D. & Eufrasio, R.M. & Gladwin, D. & Brown, S. & Stone, D., 2021. "Higher 2nd life Lithium Titanate battery content in hybrid energy storage systems lowers environmental-economic impact and balances eco-efficiency," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    14. Phelps, R. & Chan, C. & Kapsalis, S. C., 2001. "Does scenario planning affect performance? Two exploratory studies," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 223-232, March.
    15. Hansen, Mette Sanne & Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard & Jacobsen, Peter, 2016. "Interactive foresight simulation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 214-227.
    16. Enoch, M.P. & Cross, R. & Potter, N. & Davidson, C. & Taylor, S. & Brown, R. & Huang, H. & Parsons, J. & Tucker, S. & Wynne, E. & Grieg, D. & Campbell, G. & Jackson, A. & Potter, S., 2020. "Future local passenger transport system scenarios and implications for policy and practice," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 52-67.

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