IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v32y2007i10p1825-1837.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Demand projections of petroleum products and natural gas in India

Author

Listed:
  • Parikh, Jyoti
  • Purohit, Pallav
  • Maitra, Pallavi

Abstract

Indian economy has moved into a dynamic phase. It is necessary to see how energy demand will grow in this phase. In this paper, econometric models are developed for the various petroleum products separately with the aim of capturing variables that are specific to the individual fuel. This study projects the demand of fuels up to 2011–2012, end period for the 11th Five Year Plan, under two scenarios of annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6% and 8%. The demand of petroleum products for the year 2011–2012 is estimated to be 147 and 162 million tons in the business as usual scenario of 6% and optimistic scenario of 8% GDP growth, respectively. Similarly, the demand of natural gas for the year 2011–2012 has been estimated to be 46 and 49 billion cubic meters for 6% and 8% growth, respectively. The projections suggest the level of preparedness that will be required from the oil and gas sector to enable India achieve the GDP growth target that it aims to.

Suggested Citation

  • Parikh, Jyoti & Purohit, Pallav & Maitra, Pallavi, 2007. "Demand projections of petroleum products and natural gas in India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 1825-1837.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:32:y:2007:i:10:p:1825-1837
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2007.02.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544207000382
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2007.02.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rao, Raghavendra D & Parikh, Jyoti K, 1996. "Forecast and analysis of demand for petroleum products in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 583-592, June.
    2. Rijal, Kamal & Bansal, N. K. & Grover, P. D., 1990. "Rural household energy demand modelling : A case study of Nepal," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 279-288, October.
    3. Mukherjee, Shishir K., 1981. "Energy policy and planning in India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 6(8), pages 823-851.
    4. Hallock, John L. & Tharakan, Pradeep J. & Hall, Charles A.S. & Jefferson, Michael & Wu, Wei, 2004. "Forecasting the limits to the availability and diversity of global conventional oil supply," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1673-1696.
    5. Polemis, Michael L., 2006. "Empirical assessment of the determinants of road energy demand in Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 385-403, May.
    6. Jebaraj, S. & Iniyan, S., 2006. "A review of energy models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 281-311, August.
    7. Reddy, B. S. & Balachandra, P., 2003. "Integrated energy-environment-policy analysis -- a case study of India," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 59-73, June.
    8. Fernandes, Elton & Fonseca, Marcus Vinicius de A. & Alonso, Paulo Sergio R., 2005. "Natural gas in Brazil's energy matrix: demand for 1995-2010 and usage factors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 365-386, February.
    9. Krichene, Noureddine, 2002. "World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 557-576, November.
    10. Allen, Edward L. & Edmonds, James A. & Kuenne, Robert E., 1981. "A comparative analysis of global energy models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 2-13, January.
    11. Toth, Ferenc L. & Rogner, Hans-Holger, 2006. "Oil and nuclear power: Past, present, and future," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-25, January.
    12. Intarapravich, Duangjai & Johnson, Charles J. & Li, Binsheng & Long, Scott & Pezeshki, Shiva & Prawiraatmadja, Widhyawan & Tang, Frank C. & Wu, Kang, 1996. "3. Asia-Pacific energy supply and demand to 2010," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 21(11), pages 1017-1039.
    13. Ibrahim, Ibrahim B. & Hurst, Christopher, 1990. "Estimating energy and oil demand functions : A study of thirteen developing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 93-102, April.
    14. Purohit, Pallav & Kandpal, Tara C., 2005. "Renewable energy technologies for irrigation water pumping in India: projected levels of dissemination, energy delivery and investment requirements using available diffusion models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 9(6), pages 592-607, December.
    15. Ghosh, Sajal, 2006. "Future demand of petroleum products in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(15), pages 2032-2037, October.
    16. Lee, Russell & Das, Sujit, 1989. "Changes in business-as-usual forecasts in a petroleum trade model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    2. Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2010. "Modelling energy demand of developing countries: Are the specific features adequately captured?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1979-1990, April.
    3. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    4. Adom, Philip Kofi & Bekoe, William, 2012. "Conditional dynamic forecast of electrical energy consumption requirements in Ghana by 2020: A comparison of ARDL and PAM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 367-380.
    5. Scott, K. Rebecca, 2015. "Demand and price uncertainty: Rational habits in international gasoline demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 40-49.
    6. Olufolajimi Oke & Daniel Huppmann & Max Marshall & Ricky Poulton & Sauleh Siddiqui, 2019. "Multimodal Transportation Flows in Energy Networks with an Application to Crude Oil Markets," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 521-555, June.
    7. Wadud, Zia & Dey, Himadri S. & Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor & Khan, Shahidul I., 2011. "Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7372-7380.
    8. Sinha, Avik, 2017. "Examination of oil import-exchange nexus for India after currency crisis," MPRA Paper 100359, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    9. Yusof, Ahmad & Raman, Maznah & Nopiah, Zulkifli, 2013. "Modeling of the Malaysian Crude Oil System," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 47(1), pages 125-130.
    10. Malik, Afia, 2018. "Fuel Demand in Pakistan's TRansport Sector," MPRA Paper 103455, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Scott, K. Rebecca, 2011. "Demand and Price Volatility: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt2q87432b, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    12. Eleyan, Mohammed I.Abu & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Balcılar, Mehmet & Ballı, Esra, 2021. "Are long-run income and price elasticities of oil demand time-varying? New evidence from BRICS countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    13. Duangnate, Kannika & Mjelde, James W., 2017. "Comparison of data-rich and small-scale data time series models generating probabilistic forecasts: An application to U.S. natural gas gross withdrawals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 411-423.
    14. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Leahy, M., 2010. "A review of computer tools for analysing the integration of renewable energy into various energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(4), pages 1059-1082, April.
    15. Malla, Sunil, 2022. "An outlook of end-use energy demand based on a clean energy and technology transformation of the household sector in Nepal," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    16. Laha, Priyanka & Chakraborty, Basab, 2017. "Energy model – A tool for preventing energy dysfunction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 95-114.
    17. Sina Aghaei & Amirreza Safari Langroudi & Masoud Fekri, 2018. "A Predictive Model for Oil Market under Uncertainty: Data-Driven System Dynamics Approach," Papers 1808.04150, arXiv.org.
    18. Hiremath, R.B. & Shikha, S. & Ravindranath, N.H., 2007. "Decentralized energy planning; modeling and application--a review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 729-752, June.
    19. Purohit, Pallav & Michaelowa, Axel, 2007. "CDM potential of wind power projects in India," HWWI Research Papers 1-8, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    20. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chiu, Yi-Bin, 2013. "Modeling OECD energy demand: An international panel smooth transition error-correction model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 372-383.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:32:y:2007:i:10:p:1825-1837. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.