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Nonlinear dynamics of the per capita energy consumption

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  • Seifritz, W.
  • Hodgkin, J.

Abstract

Empirical data of world-wide per capita energy consumption have been analysed for the past 150 years. Close coupling has been identified with the corresponding two economic long-wave Kondratieff cycles. There is strong evidence that the per capita consumption of energy has increased in a non-linear, step-wise manner, following a logistic function. Extrapolating this behaviour into the future, a further factor of about 2.5 in the world-wide per capita energy consumption is forecast for the middle of the next century. However, a reduction could also occur with the consequence that world civilization will degrade substantially. This dilemma is discussed on the basis of the nonlinear character of the logistic functions.

Suggested Citation

  • Seifritz, W. & Hodgkin, J., 1991. "Nonlinear dynamics of the per capita energy consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 615-620.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:16:y:1991:i:3:p:615-620
    DOI: 10.1016/0360-5442(91)90032-H
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    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2007. "The impact of energy consumption on economic growth: Evidence from linear and nonlinear models in Taiwan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2282-2294.
    2. Lotfalipour, Mohammad Reza & Falahi, Mohammad Ali & Ashena, Malihe, 2010. "Economic growth, CO2 emissions, and fossil fuels consumption in Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 5115-5120.
    3. Fallahi, Firouz, 2011. "Causal relationship between energy consumption (EC) and GDP: A Markov-switching (MS) causality," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 4165-4170.
    4. Fırat Emir & Festus Victor Bekun, 2019. "Energy intensity, carbon emissions, renewable energy, and economic growth nexus: New insights from Romania," Energy & Environment, , vol. 30(3), pages 427-443, May.
    5. Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen & El Montasser, Ghassen & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2013. "Testing the relationships between energy consumption and income in G7 countries with nonlinear causality tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 126-133.
    6. Kandemir Kocaaslan, Ozge, 2013. "The causal link between energy and output growth: Evidence from Markov switching Granger causality," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1196-1206.
    7. M-Ali Sotoudeh & Andrew C. Worthington, 2016. "A comparative analysis of monetary responses to global oil price changes: net oil producing vs. net oil consuming countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 623-640, October.
    8. Nel, Willem P. & Cooper, Christopher J., 2008. "A critical review of IEA's oil demand forecast for China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1096-1106, March.
    9. Maddalena Cavicchioli, 2021. "OLS Estimation of Markov switching VAR models: asymptotics and application to energy use," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 105(3), pages 431-449, September.

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