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Long-term optimization of Egypt’s power sector: Policy implications

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  • Mondal, Md. Alam Hossain
  • Ringler, Claudia
  • Al-Riffai, Perrihan
  • Eldidi, Hagar
  • Breisinger, Clemens
  • Wiebelt, Manfred

Abstract

This paper presents an evaluation of energy supply strategies for Egypt’s power sector and identifies prospects to meet rising electricity demand while addressing energy security and low-carbon development issues. We apply the TIMES energy system model to examine Egypt’s energy policy goals as reflected in Egypt’s Vision 2030, and specifically: (a) targeted power generation based on renewable energy under two different scenarios; (b) targeted carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions’ mitigation toward low-carbon society development; and (c) constraints on natural gas production for power generation. The quantitative results from the model suggest a need for diversification from predominantly natural gas to a mix of renewable and conventional energy sources in order to improve energy security, reduce dependency on fossil fuels, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions, with the level of diversification changing with different policy options. Although total energy system cost is projected to increase the effects on fossil-fuel dependency, diversity of energy supply-mix, marginal electricity generation price, and GHG mitigation indicate that it may be wise to target promotion of renewable energy for power generation and develop a low-carbon society.

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  • Mondal, Md. Alam Hossain & Ringler, Claudia & Al-Riffai, Perrihan & Eldidi, Hagar & Breisinger, Clemens & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2019. "Long-term optimization of Egypt’s power sector: Policy implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 1063-1073.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:166:y:2019:i:c:p:1063-1073
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.10.158
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    2. Ahmed Abouaiana, 2022. "Rural Energy Communities as Pillar towards Low Carbon Future in Egypt: Beyond COP27," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Kosai, Shoki & Unesaki, Hironobu, 2020. "Short-term vs long-term reliance: Development of a novel approach for diversity of fuels for electricity in energy security," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    4. ElSayed, Mai & Aghahosseini, Arman & Breyer, Christian, 2023. "High cost of slow energy transitions for emerging countries: On the case of Egypt's pathway options," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 107-126.
    5. Doorga, Jay R.S. & Hall, Jim W. & Eyre, Nick, 2022. "Geospatial multi-criteria analysis for identifying optimum wind and solar sites in Africa: Towards effective power sector decarbonization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

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