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GEMFLOW: A time dependent model to assess responses to natural gas supply crises

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  • Szikszai, A.
  • Monforti, F.

Abstract

The January 2009 gas dispute, followed by the biggest gas supply crisis ever, called for significant changes at the community level. In line with other measures (e.g. a new regulation to ensure security of gas supply), a new tool is needed that will help decision-makers react properly in such a situation. Based on Monte-Carlo modeling principles, this new tool is being developed to take the first step towards a comprehensive model. This model could be of great support to common European efforts in order to assess the possible outcomes of a supply disruption beforehand and minimize losses during an emergency by finding the optimal distribution of flows. Naturally, the described model cannot serve at present as hydraulic software that is currently used by the national system operators, but it is able to draw significant conclusions from the European gas system's capabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Szikszai, A. & Monforti, F., 2011. "GEMFLOW: A time dependent model to assess responses to natural gas supply crises," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5129-5136, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:9:p:5129-5136
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Monforti, F. & Szikszai, A., 2010. "A MonteCarlo approach for assessing the adequacy of the European gas transmission system under supply crisis conditions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2486-2498, May.
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    3. Yu, Weichao & Wen, Kai & Min, Yuan & He, Lei & Huang, Weihe & Gong, Jing, 2018. "A methodology to quantify the gas supply capacity of natural gas transmission pipeline system using reliability theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 128-141.
    4. Rodríguez-Gómez, Nuria & Zaccarelli, Nicola & Bolado-Lavín, Ricardo, 2016. "European ability to cope with a gas crisis. Comparison between 2009 and 2014," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 461-474.
    5. Zhu, Jianhua & Peng, Yan & Gong, Zhuping & Sun, Yanming & Lai, Chaoan & Wang, Qing & Zhu, Xiaojun & Gan, Zhongxue, 2019. "Dynamic analysis of SNG and PNG supply: The stability and robustness view #," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 717-729.
    6. Su, Huai & Zhang, Jinjun & Zio, Enrico & Yang, Nan & Li, Xueyi & Zhang, Zongjie, 2018. "An integrated systemic method for supply reliability assessment of natural gas pipeline networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 489-501.
    7. Vitor Miguel Ribeiro & Gustavo Soutinho & Isabel Soares, 2023. "Natural Gas Prices in the Framework of European Union’s Energy Transition: Assessing Evolution and Drivers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-46, February.
    8. Bouwmeester, Maaike C. & Oosterhaven, J., 2017. "Economic impacts of natural gas flow disruptions between Russia and the EU," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 288-297.
    9. Yu, Weichao & Gong, Jing & Song, Shangfei & Huang, Weihe & Li, Yichen & Zhang, Jie & Hong, Bingyuan & Zhang, Ye & Wen, Kai & Duan, Xu, 2019. "Gas supply reliability analysis of a natural gas pipeline system considering the effects of underground gas storages," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 252(C), pages 1-1.
    10. Mingqi Zhang & Meirong Su & Weiwei Lu & Chunhua Su, 2015. "An Assessment of the Security of China’s Natural Gas Supply System Using Two Network Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-16, December.
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    12. Yu, Weichao & Huang, Weihe & Wen, Yunhao & Li, Yichen & Liu, Hongfei & Wen, Kai & Gong, Jing & Lu, Yanan, 2021. "An integrated gas supply reliability evaluation method of the large-scale and complex natural gas pipeline network based on demand-side analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    13. Zhaoming Yang & Qi Xiang & Yuxuan He & Shiliang Peng & Michael Havbro Faber & Enrico Zio & Lili Zuo & Huai Su & Jinjun Zhang, 2023. "Resilience of Natural Gas Pipeline System: A Review and Outlook," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-19, August.
    14. Senderov, S.M. & Edelev, A.V., 2019. "Formation of a list of critical facilities in the gas transportation system of Russia in terms of energy security," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 105-112.

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