Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Constraints of fossil fuels depletion on global warming projections

Contents:

Author Info

  • Chiari, Luca
  • Zecca, Antonio
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    A scientific debate is in progress about the intersection of climate change with the new field of fossil fuels depletion geology. Here, new projections of atmospheric CO2 concentration and global-mean temperature change are presented, should fossil fuels be exploited at a rate limited by geological availability only. The present work starts from the projections of fossil energy use, as obtained from ten independent sources. From such projections an upper bound, a lower bound and an ensemble mean profile for fossil CO2 emissions until 2200 are derived. Using the coupled gas-cycle/climate model MAGICC, the corresponding climatic projections out to 2200 are obtained. We find that CO2 concentration might increase up to about 480 ppm (445-540 ppm), while the global-mean temperature increase w.r.t. 2000 might reach 1.2 °C (0.9-1.6 °C). However, future improvements of fossil fuels recovery and discoveries of new resources might lead to higher emissions; hence our climatic projections are likely to be underestimated. In the absence of actions of emissions reduction, a level of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system might be already experienced toward the middle of the 21st century, despite the constraints imposed by the exhaustion of fossil fuels.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511004654
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 39 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 9 (September)
    Pages: 5026-5034

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:9:p:5026-5034

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

    Related research

    Keywords: Climatic projections Fossil fuels depletion Emissions scenarios;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Brecha, Robert J., 2008. "Emission scenarios in the face of fossil-fuel peaking," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3492-3504, September.
    2. Ken Gregory & Hans-Holger Rogner, 1998. "Energy Resources and Conversion Technologies for the 21st Century," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 171-230, December.
    3. Aleklett, Kjell & Höök, Mikael & Jakobsson, Kristofer & Lardelli, Michael & Snowden, Simon & Söderbergh, Bengt, 2010. "The Peak of the Oil Age - Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1398-1414, March.
    4. Zecca, Antonio & Chiari, Luca, 2010. "Fossil-fuel constraints on global warming," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-3, January.
    5. Nel, Willem P. & Cooper, Christopher J., 2009. "Implications of fossil fuel constraints on economic growth and global warming," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 166-180, January.
    6. Jakobsson, Kristofer & Söderbergh, Bengt & Höök, Mikael & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4809-4818, November.
    7. Owen, Nick A. & Inderwildi, Oliver R. & King, David A., 2010. "The status of conventional world oil reserves--Hype or cause for concern?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4743-4749, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:9:p:5026-5034. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.