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Effect of floating pricing policy: An application of system dynamics on oil market after liberalization

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  • Wu, Jung-Hua
  • Huang, Yi-Lung
  • Liu, Chang-Chen

Abstract

Upon the implementation of the floating price mechanism, Taiwan's gasoline and diesel prices returned to market mechanism, which terminated the phenomenon of the public paying for the losses of the state-owned oil company--Chinese Petroleum Corporation, Taiwan (CPC). Furthermore, the relatively low production costs of the privately owned Formosa Petrochemical Corporation (FPCC) disclosed the pricing mechanism of CPC, which inspired FPCC to adopt pricing strategy in order to increase the market share. This study aims to establish a system dynamics model to analyze the effects of the floating price mechanism on Taiwan's gasoline and diesel markets. This Model is divided into four sub-systems. The model of this study passed several validation tests, and hence, is able to provide a "virtual laboratory" for policy-makers to conduct simulation and scenario analysis. The simulation results indicate (a) feedback mechanism of expected revenues and pricing strategy could efficiently simulate the FPCC pricing mechanism, (b) price competition strategy could increase FPCC revenues, although the effect on market share is not remarkable, and (c) FPCC has a higher gas-station growth rate. Scenario analyses found (a) lowering oil security stockpile would not change FPCC's pricing strategy and (b) FPCC prefers to follow CPC pricing when it has more gas stations.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Jung-Hua & Huang, Yi-Lung & Liu, Chang-Chen, 2011. "Effect of floating pricing policy: An application of system dynamics on oil market after liberalization," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4235-4252, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:7:p:4235-4252
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Armin Leopold, 2016. "Energy related system dynamic models: a literature review," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 24(1), pages 231-261, March.
    2. Cavalcanti, Marcelo & Szklo, Alexandre & Machado, Giovani, 2012. "Do ethanol prices in Brazil follow Brent price and international gasoline price parity?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 423-433.
    3. Huang, Wen-Hsiu & Chao, Ming-Che, 2012. "The effects of oil prices on the price indices in Taiwan: International or domestic oil prices matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 730-738.
    4. Shin, Juneseuk & Shin, Wan-Seon & Lee, Changyong, 2013. "An energy security management model using quality function deployment and system dynamics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 72-86.
    5. Chou, Kuo-Wei & Tseng, Yi-Heng, 2016. "Oil prices, exchange rate, and the price asymmetry in the Taiwanese retail gasoline market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 733-741.
    6. Aslani, Alireza & Helo, Petri & Naaranoja, Marja, 2014. "Role of renewable energy policies in energy dependency in Finland: System dynamics approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 758-765.

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