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The role of coal consumption in the economic growth of the Polish economy in transition

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  • Gurgul, Henryk
  • Lach, lukasz

Abstract

The main goal of this paper is an analysis of the causal links between quarterly coal consumption in the Polish economy and GDP. For the sake of accurate computation an additional variable - employment - was also taken into account. Computations conducted for the period Q1 2000 to Q4 2009 by means of recent causality techniques confirmed the neutrality of hard coal usage with respect to economic growth. On the other hand, calculations for the pairs lignite-GDP and total coal consumption-GDP showed the existence of a significant nonlinear causality from coal usage to economic growth. This is clear evidence for claiming that lignite plays an important role in the economic growth of the Polish economy. Furthermore, each coal-related variable was found to have a nonlinear causal impact on employment. Because of the relatively short length of available time series we additionally applied bootstrap critical values. The empirical results computed by both methods did not exhibit significant differences. These results have important policy implications. In general, our findings support the hypothesis that closing hard coal mines in Poland should have no significant repercussions on economic growth. However, this does not seem to be true for lignite mines.

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  • Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, lukasz, 2011. "The role of coal consumption in the economic growth of the Polish economy in transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2088-2099, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:4:p:2088-2099
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    10. Minglu Ma & Min Su & Shuyu Li & Feng Jiang & Rongrong Li, 2018. "Predicting Coal Consumption in South Africa Based on Linear (Metabolic Grey Model), Nonlinear (Non-Linear Grey Model), and Combined (Metabolic Grey Model-Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-15, July.
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    14. Bildirici, Melike E. & Bakirtas, Tahsin, 2014. "The relationship among oil, natural gas and coal consumption and economic growth in BRICTS (Brazil, Russian, India, China, Turkey and South Africa) countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 134-144.
    15. Chai, Jian & Du, Mengfan & Liang, Ting & Sun, Xiaojie Christine & Yu, Ji & Zhang, Zhe George, 2019. "Coal consumption in China: How to bend down the curve?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 38-47.
    16. Adedoyin, Festus Fatai & Bekun, Festus Victor & Driha, Oana M. & Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel, 2020. "The effects of air transportation, energy, ICT and FDI on economic growth in the industry 4.0 era: Evidence from the United States," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    17. Brauers, Hanna & Oei, Pao-Yu, 2020. "The political economy of coal in Poland: Drivers and barriers for a shift away from fossil fuels," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 144.
    18. Yuhuan Sun & Qian Li & Ting Chen & Xiaoai Jia, 2015. "Dynamic Factor Analysis of Trends in Temporal–Spatial Patterns of China’s Coal Consumption," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(11), pages 1-17, November.
    19. García-Gusano, Diego & Iribarren, Diego & Dufour, Javier, 2018. "Is coal extension a sensible option for energy planning? A combined energy systems modelling and life cycle assessment approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 413-421.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy consumption Economic growth Granger causality;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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