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Impact of the economic recession on the European power sector's CO2 emissions

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  • Declercq, Bruno
  • Delarue, Erik
  • D'haeseleer, William
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    Abstract

    This paper investigates the impact of the economic recession on CO2 emissions in the European power sector, during the years 2008 and 2009. Three main determinants of the power sector's emissions are identified: the demand for electricity, the CO2 price, and fuel prices. A counterfactual scenario has been set up for each of these, i.e., what these parameters would have been if not affected by the recession. A simulation model of the European power sector is then employed, comparing a historical reference simulation (taking the parameters as actually occurred) with the counterfactual scenarios. The lower electricity demand (due to the recession) is shown to have by far the largest impact, accounting for an emission reduction of about 175Â Mton. The lower CO2 price (due to the recession) resulted in an increase in emissions by about 30Â Mton. The impact of fuel prices is more difficult to retrieve; an indicative reduction of about 17Â Mton is obtained, mainly as a consequence of the low gas prices in 2009. The simulated combined impact of the parameters results in an emission reduction of about 150Â Mton in the European power sector over the years 2008 and 2009 as a consequence of the recession.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 39 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 3 (March)
    Pages: 1677-1686

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:3:p:1677-1686

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

    Related research

    Keywords: CO2 emission Economic recession European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS);

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    Cited by:
    1. Jouvet, Pierre-André & Solier, Boris, 2013. "An overview of CO2 cost pass-through to electricity prices in Europe," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/7761, Paris Dauphine University.
    2. Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2011. "Does financial instability increase environmental pollution in Pakistan?," MPRA Paper 31530, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Mar 2011.
    3. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
    4. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "A model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/6969, Paris Dauphine University.
    5. Zhao, Xiaoli & Ma, Qian & Yang, Rui, 2013. "Factors influencing CO2 emissions in China's power industry: Co-integration analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 89-98.
    6. Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2013. "Does financial instability increase environmental degradation? Fresh evidence from Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 537-544.

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