IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v39y2011i10p6583-6594.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Reliable in the long run? Petroleum policy and long-term oil supplier reliability

Author

Listed:
  • Toft, Peter
  • Duero, Arash

Abstract

Accelerating oil import dependence in energy consuming nations highlights the importance of having energy supplies at sufficient levels and at stable and reasonable prices. Consequently, it is crucial that oil exporters realize their full production potential. Current debates on energy security are often focused on short-term risks e.g. sudden disruptions due to wars, domestic instability, etc. However, when it comes to assessing oil supplier reliability it is equally important to assess their longer term ability and willingness to deliver oil to the global market. This study analyzes the effects of petroleum investment policies on crude oil production trends in 14 major oil producing countries (2000-2010) by focusing on the political-institutional frameworks that shape the investment conditions for the upstream oil sector. Our findings indicate that countries with less favorable oil sector frameworks systematically performed worse than countries with investor friendly and privatized sectors. The findings indicate that assessments based on remaining reserves and planned production capacities alone could inflate expectations about future oil supplies in a world where remaining crude reserves are located in countries with unfavorable investment frameworks.

Suggested Citation

  • Toft, Peter & Duero, Arash, 2011. "Reliable in the long run? Petroleum policy and long-term oil supplier reliability," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6583-6594, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:10:p:6583-6594
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511005982
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benjamin Smith, 2004. "Oil Wealth and Regime Survival in the Developing World, 1960–1999," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(2), pages 232-246, April.
    2. Dibooglu, Sel & AlGudhea, Salim N., 2007. "All time cheaters versus cheaters in distress: An examination of cheating and oil prices in OPEC," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 292-310, September.
    3. Verbruggen, Aviel & Al Marchohi, Mohamed, 2010. "Views on peak oil and its relation to climate change policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5572-5581, October.
    4. Reynolds, Douglas B. & Pippenger, Michael K., 2010. "OPEC and Venezuelan oil production: Evidence against a cartel hypothesis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6045-6055, October.
    5. Gavin L. Kretzschmar & Axel Kirchner & Liliya Sharifzyanova, 2010. "Resource Nationalism - Limits to Foreign Direct Investment," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 27-52.
    6. Hartley, Peter & Medlock III, Kenneth B., 2008. "A model of the operation and development of a National Oil Company," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2459-2485, September.
    7. Wolf, Christian, 2009. "Does ownership matter? The performance and efficiency of State Oil vs. Private Oil (1987-2006)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2642-2652, July.
    8. Paul Domjan & Matt Stone, 2010. "A Comparative Study of Resource Nationalism in Russia and Kazakhstan 2004–2008," Europe-Asia Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 62(1), pages 35-62.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jomar Patricia De Avila Arroyo & Milton Yago & Muhammad Ali Nasir & Junjie Wu, 2014. "Strategic Alliance in Energy Sector & Implications for Economic Growth and Technical Efficiency: The Case of Petrobras and Galp," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 759-771.
    2. Månsson, André & Johansson, Bengt & Nilsson, Lars J., 2014. "Assessing energy security: An overview of commonly used methodologies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-14.
    3. Sylvain Rossiaud, 2014. "Opening the upstream oil industry to private companies," Working Papers halshs-00960681, HAL.
    4. Feng, Zhuo & Zhang, Shui-Bo & Gao, Ying, 2014. "On oil investment and production: A comparison of production sharing contracts and buyback contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 395-402.
    5. Sharma, Sunil & Sud, Mukesh, 2019. "Impact of regulatory framework on bidding behavior of firms: Policy implications for the oil & gas sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 33-42.
    6. Julien-Joern Mueller & Liam Wagner, 2013. "The Devil’s Tears from the Tournament of Shadows: Oil Supply, Markets and Unstable Producers," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 5-2013, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    7. Sylvain Rossiaud, 2015. "L’ouverture de l’amont pétrolier à des compagnies privées. Un cadre d’analyse en termes d’économie des coûts de transaction," Post-Print hal-01162793, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Rohner, Dominic, 2012. "War and natural resource exploitation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1714-1729.
    2. Mahdavi, Paasha, 2014. "Why do leaders nationalize the oil industry? The politics of resource expropriation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 228-243.
    3. Peter R. Hartley and Kenneth B. Medlock III, 2013. "Changes in the Operational Efficiency of National Oil Companies," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    4. Binlei Gong & Robin C. Sickles, 2021. "Resource allocation in multi-divisional multi-product firms," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 47-70, April.
    5. Al-Mana, Ali A. & Nawaz, Waqas & Kamal, Athar & Koҫ, Muammer, 2020. "Financial and operational efficiencies of national and international oil companies: An empirical investigation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Cabrales, Sergio & Bautista, Rafael & Benavides, Juan, 2017. "A model to assess the impact of employment policy and subsidized domestic fuel prices on national oil companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 566-578.
    7. Ghoddusi, Hamed & Nili, Masoud & Rastad, Mahdi, 2017. "On quota violations of OPEC members," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 410-422.
    8. Sena, Marcelo Fonseca Monteiro de & Rosa, Luiz Pinguelli & Szklo, Alexandre, 2013. "Will Venezuelan extra-heavy oil be a significant source of petroleum in the next decades?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 51-59.
    9. Gong, Binlei, 2018. "Different behaviors in natural gas production between national and private oil companies: Economics-driven or environment-driven?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 145-152.
    10. Mohammad Kemal, 2016. "Ownership Rights versus Access Rights Allocation to Critical Resources: An Empirical Study of the Economic Impact of Changes in Oil Governance," Working Papers 2016-02, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    11. Sylvain Rossiaud, 2015. "L’ouverture de l’amont pétrolier à des compagnies privées. Un cadre d’analyse en termes d’économie des coûts de transaction," Post-Print hal-01162793, HAL.
    12. Ganbold, Misheelt & Ali, Saleem H., 2017. "The peril and promise of resource nationalism: A case analysis of Mongolia's mining development," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-11.
    13. Gong, Binlei, 2020. "Multi-dimensional interactions in the oilfield market: A jackknife model averaging approach of spatial productivity analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    14. Basedau, Matthias & Richter, Thomas, 2011. "Why Do Some Oil Exporters Experience Civil War But Others Do Not? – A Qualitative Comparative Analysis of Net Oil-Exporting Countries," GIGA Working Papers 157, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    15. Hartley, Peter R. & Medlock, Kenneth B. & Jankovska, Olivera, 2019. "Electricity reform and retail pricing in Texas," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1-11.
    16. Catherine Locatelli & Sylvain Rossiaud, 2011. "A neoinstitutionalist interpretation of the changes in the Russian oil model," Post-Print halshs-00631115, HAL.
    17. Wegenast, Tim, 2013. "The Impact of Fuel Ownership on Intrastate Violence," GIGA Working Papers 225, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    18. Kjetil Bjorvatn & Alireza Naghavi, 2010. "Rent seekers in rentier states: When greed brings peace," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 039, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    19. Demirer, RIza & Kutan, Ali M., 2010. "The behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices around OPEC and SPR announcements: An event study perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1467-1476, November.
    20. Phoebe W. Ishak & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2022. "Oil price shocks, protest, and the shadow economy: Is there a mitigation effect?," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 298-321, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:10:p:6583-6594. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.