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Effort sharing in ambitious, global climate change mitigation scenarios

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Author Info

  • Ekholm, Tommi
  • Soimakallio, Sampo
  • Moltmann, Sara
  • Höhne, Niklas
  • Syri, Sanna
  • Savolainen, Ilkka
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    Abstract

    The post-2012 climate policy framework needs a global commitment to deep greenhouse gas emission cuts. This paper analyzes reaching ambitious emission targets up to 2050, either [hyphen (true graphic)]10% or [hyphen (true graphic)]50% from 1990 levels, and how the economic burden from mitigation efforts could be equitably shared between countries. The scenarios indicate a large low-cost mitigation potential in electricity and industry, while reaching low emission levels in international transportation and agricultural emissions might prove difficult. The two effort sharing approaches, Triptych and Multistage, were compared in terms of equitability and coherence. Both approaches produced an equitable cost distribution between countries, with least developed countries having negative or low costs and more developed countries having higher costs. There is, however, no definitive solution on how the costs should be balanced equitably between countries. Triptych seems to be yet more coherent than other approaches, as it can better accommodate national circumstances. Last, challenges and possible hindrances to effective mitigation and equitable effort sharing are presented. The findings underline the significance of assumptions behind effort sharing on mitigation potentials and current emissions, the challenge of sharing the effort with uncertain future allowance prices and how inefficient markets might undermine the efficiency of a cap-and-trade system.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 4 (April)
    Pages: 1797-1810

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:4:p:1797-1810

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

    Related research

    Keywords: Climate change mitigation Effort sharing Scenario;

    References

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    1. den Elzen, Michel & Höhne, Niklas & Moltmann, Sara, 2008. "The Triptych approach revisited: A staged sectoral approach for climate mitigation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1107-1124, March.
    2. Richard Loulou, 2008. "ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model. part II: mathematical formulation," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 41-66, February.
    3. Michel Elzen & Marcel Berk & Paul Lucas & Patrick Criqui & Alban Kitous, 2006. "Multi-Stage: A Rule-Based Evolution of Future Commitments under the Climate Change Convention," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-28, 03.
    4. Richard Loulou & Maryse Labriet, 2008. "ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model Part I: Model structure," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 7-40, February.
    5. Groenenberg, Heleen & Phylipsen, Dian & Blok, Kornelis, 2001. "Differentiating commitments world wide: global differentiation of GHG emissions reductions based on the Triptych approach--a preliminary assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 1007-1030, October.
    6. Bohringer, Christoph & Welsch, Heinz, 2004. "Contraction and Convergence of carbon emissions: an intertemporal multi-region CGE analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 21-39, January.
    7. Phylipsen, G J M & Bode, J W & Blok, K & Merkus, H & Metz, B, 1998. "A Triptych sectoral approach to burden differentiation; GHG emissions in the European bubble," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(12), pages 929-943, October.
    8. den Elzen, Michel & Lucas, Paul & Vuuren, Detlef van, 2005. "Abatement costs of post-Kyoto climate regimes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(16), pages 2138-2151, November.
    9. Benjamin J. DeAngelo, Francisco C. de la Chesnaye, Robert H. Beach, Allan Sommer and Brian C. Murray , 2006. "Methane and Nitrous Oxide Mitigation in Agriculture," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 89-108.
    10. Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Waaub, Jean-Philippe, 2004. "Equity in international greenhouse gases abatement scenarios: A multicriteria approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 489-505, March.
    11. Ringius, Lasse & Torvanger, Asbjorn & Holtsmark, Bjart, 1998. "Can multi-criteria rules fairly distribute climate burdens?: OECD results from three burden sharing rules," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(10), pages 777-793, August.
    12. Miketa, Asami & Schrattenholzer, Leo, 2006. "Equity implications of two burden-sharing rules for stabilizing greenhouse-gas concentrations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 877-891, May.
    13. Macintosh, Andrew & Wallace, Lailey, 2009. "International aviation emissions to 2025: Can emissions be stabilised without restricting demand?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 264-273, January.
    14. Shilpa Rao and Keywan Riahi, 2006. "The Role of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases in Climate Change Mitigation: Long-term Scenarios for the 21st Century," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 177-200.
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    Cited by:
    1. Ekholm, Tommi & Ghoddusi, Hamed & Krey, Volker & Riahi, Keywan, 2013. "The effect of financial constraints on energy-climate scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 562-572.
    2. Kesicki, Fabian & Anandarajah, Gabrial, 2011. "The role of energy-service demand reduction in global climate change mitigation: Combining energy modelling and decomposition analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7224-7233.
    3. Yu, Shiwei & Wei, Yi-Ming & Wang, Ke, 2014. "Provincial allocation of carbon emission reduction targets in China: An approach based on improved fuzzy cluster and Shapley value decomposition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 630-644.
    4. Michel Elzen & Niklas Höhne & Markus Hagemann & Jasper Vliet & Detlef Vuuren, 2010. "Sharing developed countries’ post-2012 greenhouse gas emission reductions based on comparable efforts," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 15(5), pages 433-465, June.

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