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Modeling the return and volatility of the Greek electricity marginal system price

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  • Theodorou, Petros
  • Karyampas, Dimitrios

Abstract

Traditional cost based optimization models (WASP) for expansion planning do not allow for mark-to-market valuation and cannot satisfy arbitrage free requirements. This work will fill this gap by developing and estimating models for mark-to-market valuation. Furthermore the present paper examines the return and volatility of the newly born Greek's electricity market's marginal system price. A detailed description of the market mechanism and regulation is used to describe how prices are determined in order to proceed with return and volatility modeling. Continuous time mean reverting and time varying mean reverting stochastic processes have been solved in discrete time processes and estimated econometrically along with ARMAX and GARCH models. It was found that GARCH model gave much better estimation and forecasting ability. Strong persistence in mean has been found giving suspicions of market inefficiency and strong incentives for arbitrage opportunities. Finally, the change in the regulatory framework has been controlled and found to have significant impact.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

Volume (Year): 36 (2008)
Issue (Month): 7 (July)
Pages: 2601-2609

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Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:7:p:2601-2609

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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References

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  1. Paul L. Joskow, 2001. "California's Electricity Crisis," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(3), pages 365-388.
  2. Paul Joskow & Edward Kahn, 2001. "A Quantitative Analysis of Pricing Behavior in California's Wholesale Electricity Market During Summer 2000," NBER Working Papers 8157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Knittel, Christopher R. & Roberts, Michael R., 2005. "An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 791-817, September.
  4. Green, Richard & Newbery, David M G, 1991. "Competition in the British Electricity Spot Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 557, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Severin Borenstein & James B. Bushnell & Frank A. Wolak, 2002. "Measuring Market Inefficiencies in California's Restructured Wholesale Electricity Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1376-1405, December.
  6. Catherine D. Wolfram, 1999. "Measuring Duopoly Power in the British Electricity Spot Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 805-826, September.
  7. E.K. Berndt & B.H. Hall & R.E. Hall, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 103-116 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Severin Borenstein, 2002. "The Trouble With Electricity Markets: Understanding California's Restructuring Disaster," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 191-211, Winter.
  9. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
  10. Thomas Klitgaard & Rekha Reddy, 2000. "Lowering electricity prices through deregulation," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec.
  11. Aleksandr Rudkevich & Max Duckworth & Richard Rosen, 1998. "Modeling Electricity Pricing in a Deregulated Generation Industry: The Potential for Oligopoly Pricing in a Poolco," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 19-48.
  12. Barnett, Andy H. & Isaacs, Justin P. & Thompson, Henry, 2002. "Retail Electric Competition and Free Interstate Trade in the Southeast," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 68-74, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Kalantzis, Fotis & Sakellaris, Kostis, 2012. "Investigating the Impact of the Greek Electricity Market Reforms on its Day-Ahead Market Prices," MPRA Paper 37794, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Moreno, Fermín & Martínez-Val, José M., 2011. "Collateral effects of renewable energies deployment in Spain: Impact on thermal power plants performance and management," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6561-6574, October.
  3. Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2010. "The relationship between energy and economic growth: Empirical evidence from 66 countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(11), pages 3565-3574, November.

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