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Modeling the return and volatility of the Greek electricity marginal system price

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  • Theodorou, Petros
  • Karyampas, Dimitrios

Abstract

Traditional cost based optimization models (WASP) for expansion planning do not allow for mark-to-market valuation and cannot satisfy arbitrage free requirements. This work will fill this gap by developing and estimating models for mark-to-market valuation. Furthermore the present paper examines the return and volatility of the newly born Greek's electricity market's marginal system price. A detailed description of the market mechanism and regulation is used to describe how prices are determined in order to proceed with return and volatility modeling. Continuous time mean reverting and time varying mean reverting stochastic processes have been solved in discrete time processes and estimated econometrically along with ARMAX and GARCH models. It was found that GARCH model gave much better estimation and forecasting ability. Strong persistence in mean has been found giving suspicions of market inefficiency and strong incentives for arbitrage opportunities. Finally, the change in the regulatory framework has been controlled and found to have significant impact.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

Volume (Year): 36 (2008)
Issue (Month): 7 (July)
Pages: 2601-2609

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Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:7:p:2601-2609

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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Cited by:
  1. Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2010. "The relationship between energy and economic growth: Empirical evidence from 66 countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(11), pages 3565-3574, November.
  2. Moreno, Fermín & Martínez-Val, José M., 2011. "Collateral effects of renewable energies deployment in Spain: Impact on thermal power plants performance and management," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6561-6574, October.
  3. Kalantzis, Fotis & Sakellaris, Kostis, 2012. "Investigating the Impact of the Greek Electricity Market Reforms on its Day-Ahead Market Prices," MPRA Paper 37794, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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