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Oil price collapse and challenges to economic transformation of Saudi Arabia: A time-series analysis

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  • Jawadi, Fredj
  • Ftiti, Zied

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of oil price changes on economic growth in Saudi Arabia to measure its dependency on the crude oil sector. To this end, an On/Off threshold regression is specified to allow the oil/GDP relationship to be asymmetric, nonlinear, and time-varying with regard to the business cycle phases. Further, we empirically test the diversification hypothesis put forward by the National Transformation Program (Saudi Vision 2030) to check whether the equity-energy investment initiative could boost economic growth in Saudi Arabia. First, our findings confirm the contribution of the oil sector to economic growth in the country, but also show that the oil/Saudi economy relationship exhibits nonlinearity and threshold effects, as the impact of oil price varies per regime depending on the state of the market. Second, in line with the Vision 2030 expectations, we are in favor of transforming the economy and opening its equity market. We also quantify a positive and significant impact of equity investment on the Saudi Arabian economy. Further, this diversification route will stimulate a beneficial oil effect on the real economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Jawadi, Fredj & Ftiti, Zied, 2019. "Oil price collapse and challenges to economic transformation of Saudi Arabia: A time-series analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 12-19.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:80:y:2019:i:c:p:12-19
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2018.12.003
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    2. Abdulrahman O. Al-Youbi & Abdulmonem Al-Hayani & Ali Rizwan & Hani Choudhry, 2020. "Implications of COVID-19 on the Labor Market of Saudi Arabia: The Role of Universities for a Sustainable Workforce," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-13, August.
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    4. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Barkat, Karim, 2020. "Short- and long-run asymmetric effect of oil prices and oil and gas revenues on the real GDP and economic diversification in oil-dependent economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    5. Shehabi, Manal, 2020. "Diversification effects of energy subsidy reform in oil exporters: Illustrations from Kuwait," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    6. Guan, Lu & Zhang, Wei-Wei & Ahmad, Ferhana & Naqvi, Bushra, 2021. "The volatility of natural resource prices and its impact on the economic growth for natural resource-dependent economies: A comparison of oil and gold dependent economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    7. Abdimalik Ali Warsame, 2022. "Does Oil Price Affect the Economic Growth in Somalia Asymmetrically?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(5), pages 47-54, September.
    8. Farahnak, Fardin, 2022. "Comparative analysis of oil-driven economic policies for Saudi Arabia and Iran; using the CGE model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    9. Bourghelle, David & Jawadi, Fredj & Rozin, Philippe, 2021. "Oil price volatility in the context of Covid-19," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 39-49.
    10. Boumediene Ramdani & Ahmed Binsaif & Elias Boukrami & Cherif Guermat, 2022. "Business models innovation in investment banks: a resilience perspective," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 51-78, March.
    11. Ulrich Blum & Jiarui Zhong, 2021. "The Loss of Raw Material Criticality: Implications of the Collapse of Saudi Arabian Oil Exports," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 56(6), pages 362-370, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price; Economic growth; Diversification; Saudi vision 2030; Nonlinearity; Threshold effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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