Does crude oil price play an important role in explaining stock return behavior?
AbstractEmploying the MS-ARJI-GJR-GARCH-X model, in which the parameters for the jump process, the asymmetric GARCH effect and the impacts of oil price shocks are regime-dependent, this paper analyzes the impact of crude oil price shock on stock return dynamics. Empirical results reveal three interesting findings. First, incorporating the asymmetric GARCH effect and the oil price shock can substantially improve fitting ability. Second, the GARCH and jump components show very different behaviors during turbulent and stable periods. Third, the effects of current and past oil price shocks differ. The conditional mean, mean of jump size and variance of jump size immediately respond to a current oil price shock. A one-period lagged oil price shock, no matter whether positive or negative, can affect the transition probability that the stock market will remain conditional in the next period. Moreover, the effects of lagged positive and negative shocks on transition probabilities are very different.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.
Volume (Year): 39 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco
Oil price shock; Stock return; Jump process; Regime switching;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marcucci Juri, 2005. "Forecasting Stock Market Volatility with Regime-Switching GARCH Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 1-55, December.
- Masih, Rumi & Peters, Sanjay & De Mello, Lurion, 2011. "Oil price volatility and stock price fluctuations in an emerging market: Evidence from South Korea," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 975-986, September.
- Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. " Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-91, June.
- Su, Jung-Bin & Hung, Jui-Cheng, 2011. "Empirical analysis of jump dynamics, heavy-tails and skewness on value-at-risk estimation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1117-1130, May.
- El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Jouini, Jamel & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Volatility spillovers between oil prices and stock sector returns: Implications for portfolio management," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1387-1405.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Economic Implications of Bull and Bear Regimes in UK Stock and Bond Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 111-143, 01.
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2001.
"Measuring the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2001-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction Of Monetary Policy To The Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669, May.
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2001. "Measuring the Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 8350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wai Mun Fong & Kim Hock See, 2001. "Modelling the conditional volatility of commodity index futures as a regime switching process," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 133-163.
- Chan, Wing Hong & Young, Denise, 2009. "A New Look at Copper Markets: A Regime-Switching Jump Model," Working Papers 2009-13, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
- Syed A. Basher & Perry Sadorsky, 2004.
"Oil price risk and emerging stock markets,"
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2011. "New evidence on oil price and firm returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3253-3262.
- Bonilla, Claudio A. & Romero-Meza, Rafael & Maquieira, Carlos, 2011. "Nonlinearities And Garch Inadequacy For Modeling Stock Market Returns: Empirical Evidence From Latin America," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(05), pages 713-724, November.
- Lee, Dong Jin & Son, Jong Chil, 2013. "Nonlinearity and structural breaks in monetary policy rules with stock prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-11.
- Nandha, Mohan & Faff, Robert, 2008. "Does oil move equity prices? A global view," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 986-997, May.
- Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2009. "Do macroeconomic variables have regime-dependent effects on stock return dynamics? Evidence from the Markov regime switching model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1283-1299, November.
- Lee, Yen-Hsien & Chiou, Jer-Shiou, 2011. "Oil sensitivity and its asymmetric impact on the stock market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 168-174.
- Gray, Stephen F., 1996.
"Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Gray's 1996 Regime Switching GARCH paper," Statistical Software Components RTZ00080, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Jouini, Jamel & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "On the impacts of oil price fluctuations on European equity markets: Volatility spillover and hedging effectiveness," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 611-617.
- Driesprong, Gerben & Jacobsen, Ben & Maat, Benjamin, 2008. "Striking oil: Another puzzle?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 307-327, August.
- Elyasiani, Elyas & Mansur, Iqbal & Odusami, Babatunde, 2011. "Oil price shocks and industry stock returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 966-974, September.
- Chiou, Jer-Shiou & Lee, Yen-Hsien, 2009. "Jump dynamics and volatility: Oil and the stock markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 788-796.
- Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "Volatility regimes, asymmetric basis effects and forecasting performance: An empirical investigation of the WTI crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 294-306.
- Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
- Filis, George, 2010. "Macro economy, stock market and oil prices: Do meaningful relationships exist among their cyclical fluctuations?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 877-886, July.
- Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
- Cong, Rong-Gang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Jiao, Jian-Lin & Fan, Ying, 2008. "Relationships between oil price shocks and stock market: An empirical analysis from China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3544-3553, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.