Cointegration and causal relationships between energy consumption and output: Assessing the evidence from Australia
AbstractIn this paper, we describe our investigation of the cointegration and causal relationships between energy consumption and economic output in Australia over a period of five decades. The framework used in this paper is the single-sector aggregate production function, which is the first comprehensive approach used in an Australian study of this type to include energy, capital and labour as separate inputs of production. The empirical evidence points to a cointegration relationship between energy and output and implies that energy is an important variable in the cointegration space, as are conventional inputs capital and labour. We also find some evidence of bidirectional causality between GDP and energy use. Although the evidence of causality from energy use to GDP was relatively weak when using the thermal aggregate of energy use, once energy consumption was adjusted for energy quality, we found strong evidence of Granger causality from energy use to GDP in Australia over the investigated period. The results are robust, irrespective of the assumptions of linear trends in the cointegration models, and are applicable for different econometric approaches.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.
Volume (Year): 34 (2012)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco
Energy consumption; Economic growth; Time series analysis; Cointegration; Causality;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- O13 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Warr, B.S. & Ayres, R.U., 2010. "Evidence of causality between the quantity and quality of energy consumption and economic growth," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1688-1693.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Zhang, Xing-Ping & Cheng, Xiao-Mei, 2009. "Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2706-2712, August.
- Yuan, Jia-Hai & Kang, Jian-Gang & Zhao, Chang-Hong & Hu, Zhao-Guang, 2008. "Energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from China at both aggregated and disaggregated levels," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3077-3094, November.
- James E. Payne, 2010. "Survey of the international evidence on the causal relationship between energy consumption and growth," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(1), pages 53-95, January.
- Squalli, Jay, 2007. "Electricity consumption and economic growth: Bounds and causality analyses of OPEC members," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1192-1205, November.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
- Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Yu, Eden S. H. & Hwang, Been-Kwei, 1984. "The relationship between energy and GNP : Further results," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 186-190, July.
- Yu, Eden S. H. & Jin, Jang C., 1992. "Cointegration tests of energy consumption, income, and employment," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 259-266, September.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Payne, James E., 2009. "On the dynamics of energy consumption and output in the US," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 575-577, April.
- Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chien, Mei-Se, 2010. "Dynamic modelling of energy consumption, capital stock, and real income in G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 564-581, May.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
- Zapata, Hector O & Rambaldi, Alicia N, 1997.
"Monte Carlo Evidence on Cointegration and Causation,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(2), pages 285-98, May.
- Zapata, Hector O. & Rambaldi, Alicia N., 1996. "Monte Carlo Evidence On Cointegration And Causation," Staff Papers 31690, Louisiana State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness.
- Costantini, Valeria & Martini, Chiara, 2010.
"The causality between energy consumption and economic growth: A multi-sectoral analysis using non-stationary cointegrated panel data,"
Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 591-603, May.
- Valeria Costantini & Chiara Martini, 2009. "The causality between energy consumption and economic growth: A multi-sectoral analysis using non-stationary cointegrated panel data," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0102, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
- Jaruwan Chontanawat & Lester C. Hunt & Richard Pierse, 2006. "Causality between Energy Consumption and GDP: Evidence from 30 OECD and 78 Non-OECD Countries," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 113, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
- Fatai, K & Oxley, Les & Scrimgeour, F.G, 2004. "Modelling the causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in New Zealand, Australia, India, Indonesia, The Philippines and Thailand," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 431-445.
- Mahadevan, Renuka & Asafu-Adjaye, John, 2007. "Energy consumption, economic growth and prices: A reassessment using panel VECM for developed and developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2481-2490, April.
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2005. "Electricity consumption, employment and real income in Australia evidence from multivariate Granger causality tests," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1109-1116, June.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Prasad, Arti, 2008. "Electricity consumption-real GDP causality nexus: Evidence from a bootstrapped causality test for 30 OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 910-918, February.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Tom Doan, . "KPSS: RATS procedure to perform KPSS (Kwiatowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin) stationarity test," Statistical Software Components RTS00100, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Karanfil, Fatih, 2009. "How many times again will we examine the energy-income nexus using a limited range of traditional econometric tools?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1191-1194, April.
- Chontanawat, Jaruwan & Hunt, Lester C. & Pierse, Richard, 2008. "Does energy consumption cause economic growth?: Evidence from a systematic study of over 100 countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 209-220.
- Cleveland, Cutler J. & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Stern, David I., 2000. "Aggregation and the role of energy in the economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 301-317, February.
- Stern, David I., 1993. "Energy and economic growth in the USA : A multivariate approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 137-150, April.
- Bowden, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2009. "The causal relationship between U.S. energy consumption and real output: A disaggregated analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 180-188.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- David I. Stern, 1998.
"A multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of energy in the U.S. macroeconomy,"
Working Papers in Ecological Economics
9803, Australian National University, Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Ecological Economics Program.
- Stern, David I., 2000. "A multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of energy in the US macroeconomy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 267-283, April.
- Ozturk, Ilhan, 2010. "A literature survey on energy-growth nexus," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 340-349, January.
- Ghali, Khalifa H. & El-Sakka, M. I. T., 2004. "Energy use and output growth in Canada: a multivariate cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 225-238, March.
- Mohammed Issa Shahateet, 2014.
"Modeling Economic Growth and Energy Consumption in Arab Countries: Cointegration and Causality Analysis,"
International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy,
Econjournals, vol. 4(3), pages 349-359.
- Shahateet, Mohammed, 2014. "Modeling Economic Growth and Energy Consumption in Arab Countries: Cointegration and Causality Analysis," MPRA Paper 57304, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Bamidele P. Abalaba & Matthew Abiodun Dada, 2013. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus: New Empirical Evidence from Nigeria," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 412 - 423.
- Islam, Faridul & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur, 2013. "Trade Openness, Financial Development Energy Use and Economic Growth in Australia:Evidence on Long Run Relation with Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 52546, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Dec 2013.
- Phiri, Andrew & Nyoni, Botha, 2014. "The electricity-growth nexus in South Africa: Evidence from asymmetric co-integration and co-feature analysis," MPRA Paper 56145, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Mensah, Justice Tei, 2014. "Carbon emissions, energy consumption and output: A threshold analysis on the causal dynamics in emerging African economies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 172-182.
- Md. Shahiduzzaman & Khorshed Alam, 2014. "A reassessment of energy and GDP relationship: the case of Australia," Environment, Development and Sustainability, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 323-344, April.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.