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The Arctic: No big bonanza for the global petroleum industry

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  • Lindholt, Lars
  • Glomsrød, Solveig
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    Abstract

    Petroleum companies and Arctic states are carefully watching the sea ice withdrawal and the future access to petroleum resources in the Arctic. We raise the question if the global market for petroleum will actually keep the door open for substantial supply of oil and gas from the Arctic, a region with almost a quarter of global undiscovered petroleum resources, but at high costs and long lead times. This makes future Arctic supply highly dependent on oil and gas prices, influenced by future supply of unconventional oil and gas and also by huge amounts of conventional gas in the Middle East coming on stream. We study the oil and gas supplies from 6 Arctic regions during 2010–2050 using the FRISBEE model of global oil and gas markets, based on Arctic resource estimates from the U.S. Geological Survey.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

    Volume (Year): 34 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 5 ()
    Pages: 1465-1474

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:5:p:1465-1474

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

    Related research

    Keywords: Arctic; Oil market; Gas market; Equilibrium model;

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    References

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    1. Finn Roar Aune & Klaus Mohn & Petter Osmundsen & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2007. "Industry restructuring, OPEC response – and oil price formation," Discussion Papers 511, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
    2. Finn Roar Aune & Solveig Glomsrød & Lars Lindholt & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2005. "Are high oil prices profitable for OPEC in the long run?," Discussion Papers 416, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
    3. Lars Lindholt & Solveig Glomsrød, 2011. "The role of the Arctic in future global petroleum supply," Discussion Papers 645, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
    4. Reynolds, Douglas B., 1999. "The mineral economy: how prices and costs can falsely signal decreasing scarcity," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 155-166, October.
    5. Finn Roar Aune, Knut Einar Rosendahl and Eirik Lund Sagen, 2009. "Globalisation of Natural Gas Markets - Effects on Prices and Trade Patterns," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 39-54.
    6. Reynolds, Douglas B. & Baek, Jungho, 2012. "Much ado about Hotelling: Beware the ides of Hubbert," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 162-170.
    7. Norgaard, Richard B., 1990. "Economic indicators of resource scarcity: A critical essay," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 19-25, July.
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