A nonparametric GARCH model of crude oil price return volatility
AbstractThe use of parametric GARCH models to characterise crude oil price volatility is widely observed in the empirical literature. In this paper, we consider an alternative approach involving nonparametric method to model and forecast oil price return volatility. Focusing on two crude oil markets, Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), we show that the out-of-sample volatility forecast of the nonparametric GARCH model yields superior performance relative to an extensive class of parametric GARCH models. These results are supported by the use of robust loss functions and the Hansen's (2005) superior predictive ability test. The improvement in forecasting accuracy of oil price return volatility based on the nonparametric GARCH model suggests that this method offers an attractive and viable alternative to the commonly used parametric GARCH models.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.
Volume (Year): 34 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco
Crude oil prices; GARCH modelling; Non-parametric method; Volatility estimation; Forecasts;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
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