Modeling and forecasting energy consumption in China: Implications for Chinese energy demand and imports in 2020
AbstractThe Chinese economy is in a stage of energy transition: from low efficiency solid fuels to oil, gas, and electric power, from agriculture to urbanization and industrialization, from heavy industry to lighter and high tech industry, from low motorization to rapid growth of the motor vehicle population. Experts fear that continued rapid economic growth in China will translate into a massive need to expand imports of oil, coal, and gas. We build an econometric model of the Chinese energy economy based on the energy balance. We use that model to forecast Chinese energy consumption and imports to 2020. The study suggests that China will, indeed, require rapidly growing imports of oil, coal, and gas. This growth is not so sensitive to the rate of economic growth as to increases in motorization. It can be offset, but probably only in small part, by increasing domestic energy production or by improvements in the efficiency of use, particularly in the production of electric power.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.
Volume (Year): 30 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Zilberfarb, Ben-Zion & Adams, F. Gerard, 1981. "The energy-GDP relationship in developing countries : Empirical evidence and stability tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 244-248, October.
- Sinton, Jonathan E & Levine, Mark D & Qingyi, Wang, 1998. "Energy efficiency in China: accomplishments and challenges," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(11), pages 813-829, September.
- Adams, F. Gerard & Ichino, Yasukazu & Prazmowski, Peter A., 2000. "Economic Growth and Energy Import Requirements: An Energy Balance Model of Thailand," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 219-254, March.
- Brookes, L G, 1972. "More on the Output Elasticity of Energy Consumption," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 83-92, November.
- Feng, Taiwen & Sun, Linyan & Zhang, Ying, 2009. "The relationship between energy consumption structure, economic structure and energy intensity in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5475-5483, December.
- Arbex, Marcelo & Perobelli, Fernando S., 2010. "Solow meets Leontief: Economic growth and energy consumption," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 43-53, January.
- Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
- Walls, W.D., 2010. "Petroleum refining industry in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2110-2115, May.
- You, Jing, 2011. "China's energy consumption and sustainable development: Comparative evidence from GDP and genuine savings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 2984-2989, August.
- Morgan Bazilian & Patrick Nussbaumer & Hans-Holger Rogner & Abeeku Brew-Hammond & Vivien Foster & Shonali Pachauri & Eric Williams & Mark Howells & Philippe Niyongabo & Lawrence Musaba & Brian Ó Gall, 2011. "Energy Access Scenarios to 2030 for the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 2011.68, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Alvarez, Jesus & Rodriguez, Eduardo, 2008. "Short-term predictability of crude oil markets: A detrended fluctuation analysis approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2645-2656, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.