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How did the financial crisis alter the correlations of U.S. yield spreads?

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  • Contessi, Silvio
  • De Pace, Pierangelo
  • Guidolin, Massimo

Abstract

We investigate the pairwise correlations of eleven U.S. fixed income yield spreads over a sample that includes the Great Financial Crisis of 2007–09. Using cross-sectional methods and nonparametric bootstrap breakpoint tests, we characterize the crisis as a period in which pairwise correlations between yield spreads were systematically and significantly altered in the sense that spreads comoved with one another much more than in normal times. We find evidence that, for almost half of the fifty-five pairs under investigation, the crisis has left spreads much more correlated than they were previously. This evidence is particularly strong for liquidity- and default-risk-related spreads, long-term spreads, and the spreads that were most likely directly affected by policy interventions.

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  • Contessi, Silvio & De Pace, Pierangelo & Guidolin, Massimo, 2014. "How did the financial crisis alter the correlations of U.S. yield spreads?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 362-385.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:28:y:2014:i:c:p:362-385
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2014.04.005
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Dating the financial crisis using fixed income market yield spreads
      by ? in FRED blog on 2014-05-22 18:00:30
    2. Euro area “lowflation” becomes “deflation”
      by ? in FRED blog on 2015-03-19 18:00:39

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    12. De Pace, Pierangelo & Weber, Kyle D., 2016. "The time-varying leading properties of the high yield spread in the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 203-230.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Yield spreads; Correlations; Breakpoint tests; Nonparametric bootstrap; Credit risk; Liquidity risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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