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Heavy tails and currency crises

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Author Info

  • Hartmann, P.
  • Straetmans, S.
  • de Vries, C.G.

Abstract

In affine models of foreign exchange rate returns, the nature of cross sectional interdependence in crisis periods hinges on the tail properties of the fundamentals' distribution. If the fundamentals exhibit thin tails like the normal distribution, the dependence vanishes asymptotically; while the dependence remains in the case of heavy tailed fundamentals as in case of the Student-t distribution. The linearity of the monetary model and heavy tail distributed fundamentals are sufficient conditions for fundamentals-based repeated joint currency crises. An estimator for the extreme exchange rate interdependencies is obtained and applied to Western, Asian and Latin American currency block data.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

Volume (Year): 17 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 241-254

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Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:17:y:2010:i:2:p:241-254

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

Related research

Keywords: Financial crises Currency market linkages Heavy tails Convolutions Asymptotic dependence;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. van Oordt, Maarten R.C. & Zhou, Chen, 2012. "The simple econometrics of tail dependence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 371-373.
  2. Tomas Fiala & Tomas Havranek, 2014. "Ailing Mothers, Healthy Daughters? Contagion in the Central European Banking Sector," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1069, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  3. Narcisa Kadlcakova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Michal Hlavacek, 2013. "Identification of Asset Price Misalignments on Financial Markets With Extreme Value Theory," Working Papers 2013/14, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  4. Qin, Xiao & Liu, Liya, 2014. "Extremes, return level and identification of currency crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 439-450.
  5. Arnold Polanski & Evarist Stoja, 2013. "Co-dependence of Extreme Events in High Frequency FX Returns," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 040, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  6. Xiao, Weilin & Zhang, Weiguo & Zhang, Xili & Chen, Xiaoyan, 2014. "The valuation of equity warrants under the fractional Vasicek process of the short-term interest rate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 320-337.

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