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A censored stochastic volatility approach to the estimation of price limit moves

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  • Hsieh, Ping-Hung
  • Yang, J. Jimmy
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    Abstract

    A censored stochastic volatility model is developed to reconstruct a return series censored by price limits, one popular form of market stabilization mechanisms. When price limits are reached, the observed prices are truncated and the equilibrium prices are unobservable, which makes further financial analyses difficult. The model offers theoretically sound estimates of censored returns and is demonstrated via simulations to outperform existing approaches with respect to the estimates of model parameters, unconditional means, and standard deviations. The algorithm is applied to model stock and futures returns and results are consistent with the simulation outcomes.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

    Volume (Year): 16 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 2 (March)
    Pages: 337-351

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:16:y:2009:i:2:p:337-351

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

    Related research

    Keywords: Price limits Stochastic volatility Stock markets Futures markets;

    References

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    Cited by:
    1. Levy, Tamir & Qadan, Mahmod & Yagil, Joseph, 2013. "Predicting the limit-hit frequency in futures contracts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 141-148.

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