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Forecasting asymmetries in aggregate stock market returns: Evidence from conditional skewness

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  • Hueng, C. James
  • McDonald, James B.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

Volume (Year): 12 (2005)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 666-685

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Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:12:y:2005:i:5:p:666-685

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

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References

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  1. Bekaert, Geert & Wu, Guojun, 2000. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42.
  2. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. " Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 221-29, March.
  3. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
  4. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December.
  5. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August.
  6. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1995. "Emerging Equity Market Volatility," NBER Working Papers 5307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Laux, Paul A. & Ng, Lilian K., 1993. "The sources of GARCH: empirical evidence from an intraday returns model incorporating systematic and unique risks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 543-560, October.
  8. Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-83, November.
  9. Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D, 1995. "Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 831-72, August.
  10. Hansen, Bruce E, 1994. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 705-30, August.
  11. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2003. "Differences of Opinion, Short-Sales Constraints, and Market Crashes," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 487-525.
  12. Wang, Kai-Li & Fawson, Christopher B. & Barrett, Christopher B. & McDonald, James B., 1998. "A Flexible Parametric Garch Model With An Application To Exchange Rates," Economics Research Institute, ERI Study Papers 28355, Utah State University, Economics Department.
  13. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2001. "Forecasting crashes: trading volume, past returns, and conditional skewness in stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 345-381, September.
  14. Terrance Odean, 1998. "Volume, Volatility, Price and Profit When All Traders Are Above Average," Finance 9803001, EconWPA.
  15. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1992. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 4193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Terrance Odean, 1998. "Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When All Traders Are Above Average," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1887-1934, December.
  17. Charles M.C. Lee & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2000. "Price Momentum and Trading Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2017-2069, October.
  18. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  19. Harvey, Campbell R. & Siddique, Akhtar, 1999. "Autoregressive Conditional Skewness," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(04), pages 465-487, December.
  20. Figlewski, Stephen & Webb, Gwendolyn P, 1993. " Options, Short Sales, and Market Completeness," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 761-77, June.
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Cited by:
  1. C. James Hueng, 2006. "Short-sales constraints and stock return asymmetry: evidence from the Chinese stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 707-716.
  2. Lai, Jing-yi, 2012. "Shock-dependent conditional skewness in international aggregate stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 72-83.
  3. Qingwei Wang, 2010. "Sentiment, Convergence of Opinion, and Market Crash," Working Papers 10012, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
  4. Colm Kearney & Margaret Lynch, 2005. "Volume and Skewness in International Equity Markets," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp043, IIIS.
  5. Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee & Brooks, Robert D., 2010. "Does volume help in predicting stock returns? An analysis of the Australian market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 146-157, June.

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