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Technology selection and capacity investment under uncertainty

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  • Filomena, Tiago Pascoal
  • Campos-Náñez, Enrique
  • Duffey, Michael Robert
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    Abstract

    We analyze the problem of technology selection and capacity investment for electricity generation in a competitive environment under uncertainty. Adopting a Nash-Cournot competition model, we consider the marginal cost as the uncertain parameter, although the results can be easily generalized to other sources of uncertainty such as a load curve. In the model, firms make three different decisions: (i) the portfolio of technologies, (ii) each technology’s capacity and (iii) the technology’s production level for every scenario. The decisions related to the portfolio and capacity are ex-ante and the production level is ex-post to the realization of uncertainty. We discuss open and closed-loop models, with the aim to understand the relationship between different technologies’ cost structures and the portfolio of generation technologies adopted by firms in equilibrium. For a competitive setting, to the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first not only to explicitly discuss the relation between costs and generation portfolio but also to allow firms to choose a portfolio of technologies. We show that portfolio diversification arises even with risk-neutral firms and technologies with different cost expectations. We also investigate conditions on the probability and cost under which different equilibria of the game arise.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Operational Research.

    Volume (Year): 232 (2014)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 125-136

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:232:y:2014:i:1:p:125-136

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor

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    Keywords: Game theory; OR in energy; Investment; Marginal costs; Uncertainty;

    References

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    1. Enzo Sauma & Shmuel Oren, 2006. "Proactive planning and valuation of transmission investments in restructured electricity markets," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 261-290, November.
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    3. Enzo Sauma & Shmuel Oren, 2006. "Proactive planning and valuation of transmission investments in restructured electricity markets," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 358-387, November.
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    8. ZOETTL, Gregor, 2008. "On investment decisions in liberalized electricity markets: the impact of price caps at the spot market," CORE Discussion Papers 2008037, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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    11. Veronika Grimm & Gregor Zoettl, 2006. "Access to Commitment Devices Reduces Investment Incentives in Oligopoly," Working Paper Series in Economics 25, University of Cologne, Department of Economics.
    12. Georg Götz, 2005. "Market Size, Technology Choice, and the Existence of Free-Entry Cournot Equilibrium," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 161(3), pages 503-, September.
    13. Oliveira, Fernando, 2008. "The value of information in electricity investment games," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2364-2375, July.
    14. Genc, Talat S. & Reynolds, Stanley S. & Sen, Suvrajeet, 2007. "Dynamic oligopolistic games under uncertainty: A stochastic programming approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 55-80, January.
    15. Augusto Rupérez-Micola & Albert Banal-Estañol, 2007. "Composition of electricity generation portfolios, pivotal dynamics and market prices," Economics Working Papers 1083, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    16. Bunn, Derek W. & Oliveira, Fernando S., 2007. "Agent-based analysis of technological diversification and specialization in electricity markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 181(3), pages 1265-1278, September.
    17. Pineau, Pierre-Olivier & Rasata, Hasina & Zaccour, Georges, 2011. "Impact of some parameters on investments in oligopolistic electricity markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 180-195, August.
    18. Sting, Fabian J. & Huchzermeier, Arnd, 2010. "Ensuring responsive capacity: How to contract with backup suppliers," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 725-735, December.
    19. Genc, Talat S. & Sen, Suvrajeet, 2008. "An analysis of capacity and price trajectories for the Ontario electricity market using dynamic Nash equilibrium under uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 173-191, January.
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