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Forecasting accuracy of behavioural models for participation in the arts


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  • Ateca-Amestoy, Victoria
  • Prieto-Rodriguez, Juan


This paper assesses the forecasting performance of count data models applied to arts attendance. We estimate participation models for two artistic activities that differ in their degree of popularity – museums and jazz concerts – with data derived from the 2002 release of the Survey of Public Participation in the Arts for the United States. We estimate a finite mixture model – a zero-inflated negative binomial model – that allows us to distinguish between “true” non-attendants and “goers” and their respective behaviour regarding participation in the arts. We evaluate the predictive (in-sample) and forecasting (out-of-sample) accuracy of the estimated model using bootstrapping techniques to compute the Brier score. Overall, the results indicate the model performs well in terms of forecasting. Finally, we draw certain policy implications from the model’s forecasting capacity, thereby allowing the identification of target populations.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Operational Research.

Volume (Year): 229 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 124-131

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:229:y:2013:i:1:p:124-131

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Keywords: Forecasting; Count data; Brier scores; Bootstrapping; Cultural participation;

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  1. Juan Nicolau, 2010. "Culture-sensitive tourists are more price insensitive," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 181-195, August.
  2. Juan Prieto-Rodriguez & Desiderio Romero-Jordán & José Felix Sanz-Sanz, 2005. "Is a tax cut on cultural goods consumption actually desirable? A microsimulation analysis applied to Spain," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 26(4), pages 549-575, December.
  3. Fernandez-Blanco, Victor & Orea, Luis & Prieto-Rodriguez, Juan, 2009. "Analyzing consumers heterogeneity and self-reported tastes: An approach consistent with the consumer's decision making process," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 622-633, August.
  4. Jones, D.F. & Collins, A. & Hand, C., 2007. "A classification model based on goal programming with non-standard preference functions with application to the prediction of cinema-going behaviour," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 177(1), pages 515-524, February.
  5. Victoria Ateca-Amestoy, 2008. "Determining heterogeneous behavior for theater attendance," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 127-151, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Karol J. Borowiecki & Juan Prieto-Rodriguez, 2013. "Video Games Playing: A substitute for cultural consumptions?," ACEI Working Paper Series AWP-07-2013, the Association for Cultural Economics International, revised Nov 2013.


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