Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Expected utility versus the changes in knowledge ahead

Contents:

Author Info

  • Pope, Robin
  • Leitner, Johannes
  • Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    We present a decision theory appropriate for use in serious choices such as insurance. It extends standard decision theories like expected utility or cumulative prospect theory which are atemporal single stage theories. Instead it employs stages of knowledge ahead to track satisfactions and dissatisfactions. In the first stage of the risk, the uninsured face dissatisfactions of worries and planning difficulties (avoided by the insured), also perhaps positive satisfactions of thrills (missed out by the insured). In the second stage when the risk is past, the uninsured may face the dissatisfactions of ridicule and blame if they learn that they were unlucky. From experimental and questionnaire data, 80% of our subjects are influenced by such secondary satisfactions. Only five percent of our participants employ the usage of integrated quantitative aggregation rules for evaluating acts as assumed under expected utility theory.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VCT-4VYP94C-4/2/b98ed45a08fdf49a2edb4acacb28ab12
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Operational Research.

    Volume (Year): 199 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 3 (December)
    Pages: 892-901

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:199:y:2009:i:3:p:892-901

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor

    Related research

    Keywords: Primary and secondary satisfactions Risk Decision making Decision analysis Experimental economics Heuristics Stages of knowledge ahead theory;

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Pugno, Maurizio, 2013. "Scitovsky, behavioural economics, and beyond," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-54, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    2. Robin Pope, 2009. "Risk Starvation Contributes to Dementias and Depressions: Whiffs of Danger Are the Antidote," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse9_2009, University of Bonn, Germany.
    3. Robin Pope & Reinhard Selten & Johannes Kaiser & Sebastian Kube & Jürgen Hagen, 2012. "Exchange rate determination: a theory of the decisive role of central bank cooperation and conflict," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 13-51, March.
    4. Robin Pope & Reinhard Selten & Sebastian Kube & Jürgen von Hagen, 2009. "Managed Floats to Damp Shocks like 1982-5 and 2006-9: Field and Laboratory Evidence for Chinese Interest in a Single World Currency," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse26_2009, University of Bonn, Germany.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:199:y:2009:i:3:p:892-901. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.