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Exchange rate volatility and domestic consumption: Evidence from Japan

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  • Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen
  • Xi, Dan

Abstract

In 1952, Alexander provided an argument that since inflationary effects of depreciation could shift income from workers to producers it could lead to a decline in aggregate domestic consumption. This was based on the assumption that wages do not adjust fully to inflation and labor has a high MPC relative to that of the producers. In this paper, we argue that in addition to the exchange rate itself, exchange rate uncertainty could also affect domestic consumption. We demonstrate our conjecture by using quarterly data from Japan and a bounds testing approach that distinguishes the short run from the long run.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Systems.

Volume (Year): 36 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 326-335

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:36:y:2012:i:2:p:326-335

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Keywords: Aggregate consumption; Exchange rate uncertainty; Japan;

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References

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  1. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Biman Chand Prasad & Arti Prasad, 2007. "Export-led growth hypothesis: evidence from Papua New Guinea and Fiji," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 341-351, September.
  2. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Massomeh Hajilee, 2010. "On the relation between currency depreciation and wages," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(6), pages 525-530.
  4. Hassan Mohammadi & Murat Cak & Demet Cak, 2008. "Wagner's hypothesis: New evidence from Turkey using the bounds testing approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 94-106, March.
  5. Ferda Halicioglu, 2007. "The J-curve dynamics of Turkish bilateral trade: a cointegration approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 103-119, May.
  6. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Hakura, Dalia S., 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices: Does the inflationary environment matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 614-639, June.
  7. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  8. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Tankui, Altin, 2008. "The black market exchange rate vs. the official rate in testing PPP: Which rate fosters the adjustment process?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 40-43, April.
  9. Sidney S. Alexander, 1952. "Effects of a Devaluation on a Trade Balance," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 2(2), pages 263-278, April.
  10. Robert E. Hall, 1986. "The Role of Consumption in Economic Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 237-266 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Alan S. Blinder & Angus Deaton, 1985. "The Time Series Consumption Function Revisited," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 465-521.
  12. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1991. "Effects of exchange rate variability on inflation variability," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 729-733, June.
  13. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Claire Economidou & Gour Gobinda Goswami, 2005. "How sensitive are Britain's inpayments and outpayments to the value of the British pound," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(5), pages 455-467, October.
  14. Koi Nyen Wong & Tuck Cheong Tang, 2008. "The effects of exchange rate variability on Malaysia's disaggregated electrical exports," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 35(2), pages 154-169, May.
  15. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility and trade flows: a review article," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 211-255, September.
  16. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2007. "Money demand function for Southeast Asian countries: An empirical view from expenditure components," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(6), pages 476-496, November.
  17. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Abera Gelan, 2009. "How stable is the demand for money in African countries?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 216-235, September.
  18. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Glauco De Vita & Khine S. Kyaw, 2008. "Determinants of capital flows to developing countries: a structural VAR analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 304-322, July.
  20. Hall, Stephen G & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1997. "Cointegration and Changes in Regime: The Japanese Consumption Function," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 151-68, March-Apr.
  21. James E. Payne, 2008. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty: evidence from the Caribbean region," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 501-511, November.
  22. Kugler, Peter, 1985. "Autoregressive Modelling of Consumption, Income, Inflation, and Interest Rate Data: A Multicountry Study," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 37-50.
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Cited by:
  1. Ben Salha, Ousama, 2013. "Does economic globalization affect the level and volatility of labor demand by skill? New insights from the Tunisian manufacturing industries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 572-597.

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