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Potential impacts of the devaluation of Nepalese currency: A general equilibrium approach

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  • Acharya, Sanjaya

Abstract

This paper measures the potential impacts of the devaluation of domestic currency of the small, developing, landlocked and transition South Asian economy of Nepal, which is lagging behind in policy studies. The impacts on growth, distribution, price changes in factor and product markets, and on selected macroeconomic features are measured. Using a computable general equilibrium model applied to social accounting matrix data, we conclude that devaluation is expansionary but mostly benefits the rich, thus leading to a more uneven income distribution. In general, the expansion of economic activities occurs in agricultural and industrial sectors, whereas services activities contract. However, when the rate of devaluation is high, the agricultural sector also starts contracting. To this typical developing economy, devaluation causes an improvement in saving investment and export/import ratios, whereas the budget deficit widens.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Systems.

Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 413-436

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:34:y:2010:i:4:p:413-436

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Keywords: Devaluation Growth Distribution Macroeconomic features CGE model;

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  1. Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1986. "Exchange rate management and stabilization policies in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 227-247, October.
  2. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
  3. Rainer Schweickert & Rainer Thiele & Manfred Wiebelt, 2005. "Macroeconomic and Distributional Effects of Devaluation in a Dollarized Economy: A CGE Analysis for Bolivia," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 120, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Dimitris Christopoulos, 2004. "Currency devaluation and output growth: new evidence from panel data analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(13), pages 809-813.
  5. Ferreira, Francisco H. G. & Leite, Phillippe G. & Pereira da Silva, Luiz A. & Picchetti, Paulo, 2004. "Can the distributional impacts of macroeconomic shocks be predicted? A comparison of the performance of macro-micro models with historical data for Brazil," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3303, The World Bank.
  6. Marla Ripoll, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Targeting, Macroeconomic Performance and Sectoral Income Distribution in Developing Countries," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 167-196.
  7. Jesus Felipe & Carsten Holz, 2001. "Why do Aggregate Production Functions Work? Fisher's simulations, Shaikh's identity and some new results," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 261-285.
  8. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Risager, Ole, 1984. "Does devaluation improve the current account?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 37-64, June.
  9. Upadhyaya, Kamal P., 1999. "Currency devaluation, aggregate output, and the long run: an empirical study," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 197-202, August.
  10. Jann Lay & Rainer Thiele & Manfred Wiebelt, 2004. "Pro-poor Growth in Bolivia: Accounting for External Shocks and Policy Reforms," Kiel Working Papers 1231, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
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