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Nonparametric estimation of an instrumental regression: A quasi-Bayesian approach based on regularized posterior

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  • Florens, Jean-Pierre
  • Simoni, Anna
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    Abstract

    We propose a quasi-Bayesian nonparametric approach to estimating the structural relationship φ among endogenous variables when instruments are available. We show that the posterior distribution of φ is inconsistent in the frequentist sense. We interpret this fact as the ill-posedness of the Bayesian inverse problem defined by the relation that characterizes the structural function φ. To solve this problem, we construct a regularized posterior distribution, based on a Tikhonov regularization of the inverse of the marginal variance of the sample, which is justified by a penalized projection argument. This regularized posterior distribution is consistent in the frequentist sense and its mean can be interpreted as the mean of the exact posterior distribution resulting from a Gaussian prior distribution with a shrinking covariance operator.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

    Volume (Year): 170 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 458-475

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:170:y:2012:i:2:p:458-475

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

    Related research

    Keywords: Instrumental regression; Nonparametric estimation; Posterior distribution; Tikhonov regularization; Posterior consistency;

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    References

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    1. Xiaohong Chen & Markus Reiss, 2007. "On Rate Optimality for Ill-posed Inverse Problems in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1626, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Gagliardini, Patrick & Scaillet, Olivier, 2012. "Tikhonov regularization for nonparametric instrumental variable estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 61-75.
    3. Chen, Xiaohong & White, Halbert, 1998. "Central Limit And Functional Central Limit Theorems For Hilbert-Valued Dependent Heterogeneous Arrays With Applications," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(02), pages 260-284, April.
    4. FLORENS, Jean-Pierre & JOHANNES, Jan & VAN BELLEGEM, Sébastien, 2007. "Identification and estimation by penalization in nonparametric instrumental regression," CORE Discussion Papers 2007085, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    5. Chunrong Ai & Xiaohong Chen, 2003. "Efficient Estimation of Models with Conditional Moment Restrictions Containing Unknown Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1795-1843, November.
    6. S. Darolles & Y. Fan & J. P. Florens & E. Renault, 2011. "Nonparametric Instrumental Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1541-1565, 09.
    7. Carrasco, Marine & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Renault, Eric, 2007. "Linear Inverse Problems in Structural Econometrics Estimation Based on Spectral Decomposition and Regularization," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 77 Elsevier.
    8. Richard Blundell & Xiaohong Chen & Dennis Kristensen, 2007. "Semi-Nonparametric IV Estimation of Shape-Invariant Engel Curves," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1613-1669, November.
    9. Frédérique Fève & Jean-Pierre Florens, 2010. "The practice of non-parametric estimation by solving inverse problems: the example of transformation models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 13(3), pages S1-S27, October.
    10. Whitney K. Newey & James L. Powell, 2003. "Instrumental Variable Estimation of Nonparametric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1565-1578, 09.
    11. Jean-Pierre Florens & Anna Simoni, 2012. "Regularized Posteriors in Linear Ill-Posed Inverse Problems," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics & Finnish Statistical Society & Norwegian Statistical Association & Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 39(2), pages 214-235, 06.
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    Cited by:
    1. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & S. Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Historical Developments in Bayesian Econometrics after Cowles Foundation Monographs 10, 14," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-191/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Liao, Yuan & Simoni, Anna, 2012. "Semi-parametric Bayesian Partially Identified Models based on Support Function," MPRA Paper 43262, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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