Nonparametric estimation of an instrumental regression: A quasi-Bayesian approach based on regularized posterior
AbstractWe propose a quasi-Bayesian nonparametric approach to estimating the structural relationship φ among endogenous variables when instruments are available. We show that the posterior distribution of φ is inconsistent in the frequentist sense. We interpret this fact as the ill-posedness of the Bayesian inverse problem defined by the relation that characterizes the structural function φ. To solve this problem, we construct a regularized posterior distribution, based on a Tikhonov regularization of the inverse of the marginal variance of the sample, which is justified by a penalized projection argument. This regularized posterior distribution is consistent in the frequentist sense and its mean can be interpreted as the mean of the exact posterior distribution resulting from a Gaussian prior distribution with a shrinking covariance operator.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.
Volume (Year): 170 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom
Instrumental regression; Nonparametric estimation; Posterior distribution; Tikhonov regularization; Posterior consistency;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
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