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Realized volatility forecasting and option pricing

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  • Bandi, Federico M.
  • Russell, Jeffrey R.
  • Yang, Chen
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    Abstract

    A growing literature advocates the use of microstructure noise-contaminated high-frequency data for the purpose of volatility estimation. This paper evaluates and compares the quality of several recently-proposed estimators in the context of a relevant economic metric, i.e., profits from option pricing and trading. Using forecasts obtained by virtue of alternative volatility estimates, agents price short-term options on the S&P 500 index before trading with each other at average prices. The agents' average profits and the Sharpe ratios of the profits constitute the criteria used to evaluate alternative volatility estimates and the corresponding forecasts. For our data, we find that estimators with superior finite sample Mean-squared-error properties generate higher average profits and higher Sharpe ratios, in general. We confirm that, even from a forecasting standpoint, there is scope for optimizing the finite sample properties of alternative volatility estimators as advocated by Bandi and Russell [Bandi, F.M., Russell, J.R., 2005. Market microstructure noise, integrated variance estimators, and the accuracy of asymptotic approximations. Working Paper; Bandi, F.M., Russell, J.R., 2008b. Microstructure noise, realized variance, and optimal sampling. Review of Economic Studies 75, 339-369] in recent work.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

    Volume (Year): 147 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 1 (November)
    Pages: 34-46

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:147:y:2008:i:1:p:34-46

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

    Related research

    Keywords: Option pricing Microstructure noise Volatility forecasting Economic metrics Realized variance Two-scale estimator Realized kernels;

    References

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    1. Norman R. Swanson & Valentina Corradi & Walter Distaso, 2011. "Predictive Inference for Integrated Volatility," Departmental Working Papers, Rutgers University, Department of Economics 201109, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    2. Roel C. A. Oomen, 2005. "Properties of Bias-Corrected Realized Variance Under Alternative Sampling Schemes," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 3(4), pages 555-577.
    3. Ghysels, Eric & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2006. "Predicting volatility: getting the most out of return data sampled at different frequencies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 59-95.
    4. Michael McAleer & Marcelo Medeiros, 2008. "Realized Volatility: A Review," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1-3), pages 10-45.
    5. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2001. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," NBER Working Papers 8160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Michiel de Pooter & Martin Martens & Dick van Dijk, 2008. "Predicting the Daily Covariance Matrix for S&P 100 Stocks Using Intraday Data—But Which Frequency to Use?," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1-3), pages 199-229.
    7. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Shephard, 2002. "Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 253-280.
    8. Kalnina, Ilze & Linton, Oliver, 2008. "Estimating quadratic variation consistently in the presence of endogenous and diurnal measurement error," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 47-59, November.
    9. Hansen, Peter R. & Lunde, Asger, 2006. "Realized Variance and Market Microstructure Noise," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 127-161, April.
    10. Zhang, Lan & Mykland, Per A. & Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 2005. "A Tale of Two Time Scales: Determining Integrated Volatility With Noisy High-Frequency Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 1394-1411, December.
    11. Jeff Fleming, 2001. "The Economic Value of Volatility Timing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 329-352, 02.
    12. Bauer Daniel & Börger Matthias & Ruß Jochen & Zwiesler Hans-Joachim, 2008. "The Volatility of Mortality," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-29, September.
    13. Zhou, Bin, 1996. "High-Frequency Data and Volatility in Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 45-52, January.
    14. Edwin J. Elton, 2002. "Spiders: Where Are the Bugs?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(3), pages 453-472, July.
    15. F. M. Bandi & J. R. Russell, 2008. "Microstructure Noise, Realized Variance, and Optimal Sampling," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 339-369.
    16. Kenneth D. West & Hali J. Edison & Dongchul Cho, 1993. "A utility based comparison of some models of exchange rate volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 441, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Peter Reinhard Hansen & Asger Lunde, 2005. "A Realized Variance for the Whole Day Based on Intermittent High-Frequency Data," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 3(4), pages 525-554.
    18. Federico Bandi & Jeffrey Russell & Yinghua Zhu, 2008. "Using High-Frequency Data in Dynamic Portfolio Choice," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1-3), pages 163-198.
    19. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Ebens, Heiko, 2001. "The distribution of realized stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-76, July.
    20. Robert F. Engle & Che-Hsiung Hong & Alex Kane, 1990. "Valuation of Variance Forecast with Simulated Option Markets," NBER Working Papers 3350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Bandi, Federico M. & Russell, Jeffrey R., 2006. "Separating microstructure noise from volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 655-692, March.
    22. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Mancini, Loriano, 2008. "Out of sample forecasts of quadratic variation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 17-33, November.
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    Cited by:
    1. Gael M. Martin & Andrew Reidy & Jill Wright, 2009. "Does the option market produce superior forecasts of noise-corrected volatility measures?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 77-104.
    2. Benoît Sévi, 2014. "Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures using intraday data," Working Papers 2014-053, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    3. Bandi, Federico M. & Russell, Jeffrey R., 2011. "Market microstructure noise, integrated variance estimators, and the accuracy of asymptotic approximations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 145-159, January.
    4. Masato Ubukata & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2011. "Pricing Nikkei 225 Options Using Realized Volatility," IMES Discussion Paper Series 11-E-18, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    5. Jim Gatheral & Roel Oomen, 2010. "Zero-intelligence realized variance estimation," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 249-283, April.
    6. Vortelinos, Dimitrios I. & Thomakos, Dimitrios D., 2013. "Nonparametric realized volatility estimation in the international equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 34-45.
    7. Masato Ubukata & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2013. "Pricing Nikkei 225 Options Using Realized Volatility," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd12-273, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    8. Asuka Takeuchi-Nogimori, 2012. "An Empirical Analysis of the Nikkei 225 Put Options Using Realized GARCH Models," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd12-241, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

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