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Mixtures of t-distributions for finance and forecasting

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Author Info
Giacomini, Raffaella
Gottschling, Andreas
Haefke, Christian
White, Halbert

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Abstract

We explore convenient analytic properties of distributions constructed as mixtures of scaled and shifted t-distributions. Particularly desirable for econometric applications are closed-form expressions for antiderivatives (e.g., the cumulative density function). We illustrate the usefulness of these distributions in two applications. In the first application, we produce density forecasts of U.S. inflation and show that these forecasts are more accurate, out-of-sample, than density forecasts obtained using normal or standard t-distributions. In the second application, we replicate the option-pricing exercise of Abadir and Rockinger [Density functionals, with an option-pricing application. Econometric Theory 19, 778-811.] and obtain comparably good results, while gaining analytical tractability.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 144 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
Pages: 175-192
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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:144:y:2008:i:1:p:175-192

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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  1. Karim Abadir, 1999. "An introduction to hypergeometric functions for economists," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 287-330. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-51, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 1998. "Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 499-547, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. W. A. Broock & J. A. Scheinkman & W. D. Dechert & B. LeBaron, 1996. "A test for independence based on the correlation dimension," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 197-235. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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