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The effect of diverging communication: The case of the ECB and the Bundesbank

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  • Tillmann, Peter
  • Walter, Andreas

Abstract

When members of monetary policy committees communicate with the public, the resulting cacophony of voices is often considered a source of confusion. We associate each speech delivered by the presidents of the ECB and the Bundesbank since 2008 with a tone score and construct a measure of diverging tone. Shocks to the tone divergence between the Eurosystem’s main protagonists drive volatility, policy uncertainty and risk premia.

Suggested Citation

  • Tillmann, Peter & Walter, Andreas, 2019. "The effect of diverging communication: The case of the ECB and the Bundesbank," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 68-74.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:176:y:2019:i:c:p:68-74
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2018.12.035
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Tillmann & Andreas Walter, 2018. "ECB vs Bundesbank: Diverging Tones and Policy Effectiveness," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201820, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
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    6. Geiger, Felix & Schupp, Fabian, 2018. "With a little help from my friends: Survey-based derivation of euro area short rate expectations at the effective lower bound," Discussion Papers 27/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gnan, Phillipp & Rieder, Kilian, 2023. "The (not so) quiet period: Communication by ECB decision-makers during monetary policy blackout days☆," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    2. Mahambare, Vidya & Pathak, Jalaj, 2021. "Differential impact of diversity in policy communication," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    3. Istrefi, Klodiana & Odendahl, Florens & Sestieri, Giulia, 2023. "Fed communication on financial stability concerns and monetary policy decisions: Revelations from speeches," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    4. Rayane Hanifi & Klodiana Istrefi & Adrian Penalver, 2022. "Central Bank Communication of Uncertainty," Working papers 898, Banque de France.
    5. Florens Odendahl & Maria Sole Pagliari & Adrian Penalver & Barbara Rossi & Giulia Sestieri, 2023. "Euro Area Monetary Policy Effects. Does the Shape of the Yield Curve Matter?," Working papers 912, Banque de France.
    6. Rieder, Kilian, 2022. "Monetary policy decision-making by committee: Why, when and how it can work," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    7. Armelius, Hanna & Bertsch, Christoph & Hull, Isaiah & Zhang, Xin, 2020. "Spread the Word: International spillovers from central bank communication," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    8. Ehrmann, Michael & Gnan, Phillipp & Rieder, Kilian, 2023. "Central Bank Communication by ??? The Economics of Public Policy Leaks," CEPR Discussion Papers 18152, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Glas, Alexander & Müller, Lena, 2021. "Talking in a language that everyone can understand? Transparency of speeches by the ECB Executive Board," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 01/2021, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    10. Rieder, Kilian & Gnan, Phillipp, 2022. "The (Not So) Quiet Period: Communication by ECB Decision-makers during Monetary Policy Blackout Days," CEPR Discussion Papers 15735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Hayo, Bernd & Zahner, Johannes, 2023. "What is that noise? Analysing sentiment-based variation in central bank communication," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    12. Müller, Lena Sophia & Glas, Alexander, 2021. "Talking in a language that everyone can understand? Transparency of speeches by the ECB Executive Board," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242364, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Davide Romelli & Hamza Bennani, 2021. "Disagreement inside the FOMC: New Insights from Tone Analysis," Trinity Economics Papers tep1021, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    14. Tzomakas, Christos & Anastasiou, Dimitrios & Katsafados, Apostolos & Krokida, Styliani Iris, 2023. "Crisis sentiment and banks’ stock price crash risk: A missing piece of the puzzle?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank communication; Diverging tone; Speeches; Text analysis; Monetary transmission;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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