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Seasonal cycles in a model of the housing market

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  • Selcuk, Cemil

Abstract

The US housing market exhibits seasonal boom and bust cycles where prices and the speed of trade (turnover rate) rise in summers and fall in winters. We present a search model that analytically generates the observed cycles. The proposed mechanism is based on swings in market thickness rather than market tightness, the leading explanation in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Selcuk, Cemil, 2014. "Seasonal cycles in a model of the housing market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 195-199.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:123:y:2014:i:2:p:195-199
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2014.02.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mark Bagnoli & Ted Bergstrom, 2006. "Log-concave probability and its applications," Studies in Economic Theory, in: Charalambos D. Aliprantis & Rosa L. Matzkin & Daniel L. McFadden & James C. Moore & Nicholas C. Yann (ed.), Rationality and Equilibrium, pages 217-241, Springer.
    2. L. Rachel Ngai & Silvana Tenreyro, 2014. "Hot and Cold Seasons in the Housing Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(12), pages 3991-4026, December.
    3. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1701-1727, November.
    4. Krainer, John, 2001. "A Theory of Liquidity in Residential Real Estate Markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 32-53, January.
    5. John L. Goodman, Jr., 1993. "A Housing Market Matching Model of the Seasonality in Geographic Mobility," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(1), pages 117-138.
    6. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
    7. Kaplanski, Guy & Levy, Haim, 2012. "Real estate prices: An international study of seasonality's sentiment effect," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-146.
    8. Jeremy C. Stein, 1995. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 379-406.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing; Search and matching; Thin and thick markets; Seasonality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D39 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Other
    • D49 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Other
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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