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The efficiency of the benchmark revisions to the current employment statistics (CES) data

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  • Phillips, Keith R.
  • Nordlund, James

Abstract

We find evidence of a cyclical and seasonal bias in the annual benchmark revisions to the monthly level of non-farm payroll employment. We propose a change to the methodology that would remove the seasonal bias and ensure that the benchmark process does not artificially influence the estimated seasonal pattern in the raw data.

Suggested Citation

  • Phillips, Keith R. & Nordlund, James, 2012. "The efficiency of the benchmark revisions to the current employment statistics (CES) data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 431-434.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:115:y:2012:i:3:p:431-434
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.12.118
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Neumark, David & Wascher, William L, 1991. "Can We Improve upon Preliminary Estimates of Payroll Employment Growth?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(2), pages 197-205, April.
    2. Nicholas Haltom & Vanessa D. Mitchell & Ellis W. Tallman, 2005. "Payroll employment data: measuring the effects of annual benchmark revisions," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 90(Q 2), pages 1-23.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Emilia Tomczyk, 2013. "End of sample vs. real time data: perspectives for analysis of expectations," Working Papers 68, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    2. Eiji Goto & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Tara M. Sinclair & Simon van Norden, 2023. "Employment reconciliation and nowcasting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 1007-1017, November.
    3. Phillips, Keith R. & Teng, Judy S., 2020. "Months for benchmark dominance: A new accuracy measure for state employment data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).

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    7. Franklin D. Berger & Keith R. Phillips, 1994. "The disappearing January blip and other state employment mysteries," Working Papers 9403, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Data revisions; Seasonal bias; Payroll employment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General

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