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The efficiency of the benchmark revisions to the current employment statistics (CES) data

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  • Phillips, Keith R.
  • Nordlund, James

Abstract

We find evidence of a cyclical and seasonal bias in the annual benchmark revisions to the monthly level of non-farm payroll employment. We propose a change to the methodology that would remove the seasonal bias and ensure that the benchmark process does not artificially influence the estimated seasonal pattern in the raw data.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 115 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 431-434

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:115:y:2012:i:3:p:431-434

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

Related research

Keywords: Data revisions; Seasonal bias; Payroll employment;

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  1. Neumark, David & Wascher, William L, 1991. "Can We Improve upon Preliminary Estimates of Payroll Employment Growth?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(2), pages 197-205, April.
  2. Nicholas L. Haltom & Vanessa D. Mitchell & Ellis W. Tallman, 2005. "Payroll employment data: measuring the effects of annual benchmark revisions," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 2, pages 1-23.
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