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A new measurement method of investor overconfidence

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  • Huisman, Ronald
  • van der Sar, Nico L.
  • Zwinkels, Remco C.J.

Abstract

We present an alternative measurement method of investor overconfidence, using unique survey data on stock market predictions of investors. We apply the Parkinson estimate based on extreme bounds around the stock forecast to deduce investor confidence. The results support overconfidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Huisman, Ronald & van der Sar, Nico L. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2012. "A new measurement method of investor overconfidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 69-71.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:114:y:2012:i:1:p:69-71
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.09.022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martens, Martin & van Dijk, Dick, 2007. "Measuring volatility with the realized range," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 181-207, May.
    2. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1839-1885, December.
    3. Markus Glaser & Martin Weber, 2007. "Overconfidence and trading volume," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 32(1), pages 1-36, June.
    4. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292.
    5. Yu, Wayne W. & Lui, Evans C.K. & Wang, Jacqueline W., 2010. "The predictive power of the implied volatility of options traded OTC and on exchanges," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 1-11, January.
    6. Parkinson, Michael, 1980. "The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 61-65, January.
    7. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2005. "The long-run equity risk premium," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 185-194, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dergiades, Theologos, 2012. "Do investors’ sentiment dynamics affect stock returns? Evidence from the US economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 404-407.
    2. Goldbaum, David & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2014. "An empirical examination of heterogeneity and switching in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 667-684.
    3. Markus Spiwoks & Kilian Bizer, 2018. "Correlation Neglect and Overconfidence. An Experimental Study," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(3), pages 1-5.
    4. Huisman, Ronald & Van der Sar, Nico L. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2021. "Volatility expectations and disagreement," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 379-393.
    5. Boubaker Adel & Talbi Mariem, 2013. "The Impact of Overconfidence on Investors' Decisions," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 3(2), pages 53-75, December.
    6. Soleman Alsabban & Omar Alarfaj, 2020. "An Empirical Analysis of Behavioral Finance in the Saudi Stock Market: Evidence of Overconfidence Behavior," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 73-86.
    7. Markus Spiwoks & Kilian Bizer, 2018. "On the Measurement of Overconfidence: An Experimental Study," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 4(1), pages 30-37, 01-2018.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investor overconfidence; Survey data; Parkinson volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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