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How forward-looking is the Fed? Direct estimates from a 'Calvo-type' rule

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  • Gabriel, Vasco J.
  • Levine, Paul
  • Spencer, Christopher

Abstract

We estimate an alternative type of monetary policy rule according to which the central bank targets a discounted infinite sum of expected inflation and output gaps. Empirical results suggest that the Fed has a mean forward horizon of 4 to 8 quarters.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 104 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
Pages: 92-95

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:104:y:2009:i:2:p:92-95

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

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Keywords: Calvo-type interest rules Inflation forecast based rules GMM Indeterminacy;

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References

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  1. Nicoletta Batini & Edward Nelson, 1999. "Optimal Horizons for Inflation Targeting," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1052, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Andrew Levin & John C. Williams, 2000. "The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1781, Econometric Society.
  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
  5. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
  6. Batini, Nicoletta & Justiniano, Alejandro & Levine, Paul & Pearlman, Joseph, 2006. "Robust inflation-forecast-based rules to shield against indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1491-1526.
  7. Marc Paolo Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "How forward-looking is optimal monetary policy?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1425-1483.
  8. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 983-1022, July.
  9. Athanasios Orphanides & Volker Wieland, 2008. "Economic Projections and Rules-of-Thumb for Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 07-035, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  10. Whitney Newey & Richard Smith, 2003. "Higher order properties of GMM and generalised empirical likelihood estimators," CeMMAP working papers CWP04/03, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  11. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
  12. Levine, Paul & McAdam, Peter & Pearlman, Joseph G., 2006. "Inflation forecast-based-rules and indeterminacy: a puzzle and a resolution," Working Paper Series 0643, European Central Bank.
  13. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Vasco J. Gabriel & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Bo Yang, 2010. "An Estimated DSGE Model of the Indian Economy," NIPE Working Papers 29/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  2. Alexandre, Fernando & Portela, Miguel & Sá, Carla, 2008. "Admission Conditions and Graduates' Employability," IZA Discussion Papers 3530, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Ida Wolden Bache & Øistein Røislanda & Kjersti Næss Torstensen, 2011. "Interest Rate Smoothing and "Calvo-Type" Interest Rate Rules: A Comment on Levine, McAdam, and Pearlman (2007)," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 79-90, September.
  4. Eurilton Araújo & Débora Gouveia, 2013. "Calvo-type rules and the forward-looking behavior of inflation targeting central banks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2042-2051.
  5. Paulo Bastos & Natália P. Monteiro, 2011. "Managers and Wage Policies," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(4), pages 957-984, December.
  6. Seip, Knut L. & McNown, Robert, 2013. "Monetary policy and stability during six periods in US economic history: 1959–2008: a novel, nonlinear monetary policy rule," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 307-325.

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